☕️OPEN SECRETS ☙ Tuesday, March 3, 2026 ☙ C&C NEWS🦠

Air superiority over Iran in 48 hours; SCOTUS backs parents' rights, blocks NY racial gerrymander; Venezuelan 'quagmire' looks like historic triumph; the body count grift returns; and much more.

Good morning, C&C, it’s Tuesday! C&C is on the road again, once again hotel blogging, as your humble lawyer-author attends an out-of-town court hearing on the scenic Gulf Coast. Good for you—C&C arrives early this morning. Your roundup includes: Iran war update; ‘air superiority’ means game over for Tehran’s missile crews; Supreme Court tells California it can’t secretly trans our kids without telling us; New York Democrats tried to gerrymander the city’s last Republican district using the most insane legal theory you’ve ever heard; Venezuela’s stunning two-month transformation proves Trump just re-invented ‘quagmires’ and created more history; and what it suggests for Iran.

⛑️ C&C ARMY BRIEFING — IRAN WAR UPDATE ⛑️

The morning’s top story on the New York Times’ web page reported, “Iran Escalates Retaliatory Strikes Around the Region.” Iran’s military strategy appears to be modeled after a cranky toddler who, after being told he can’t have a cookie, proceeds to throw the cookie jar at every single person in or near the house, including the dog, the cable guy, and his Omani neighbor who was just trying to return a tahini dish.

Iran’s largely unsupervised missile crews continued launching strikes at uninvolved neighboring countries yesterday, trying to crush American civilian targets like Amazon’s data centers and official ones like US embassies. It’s not so much a retaliatory campaign as a temper tantrum with ballistic missiles. Even the Little Rocket Man, Kim Jong Un, might call it excessive.

Yesterday, Business Insider reported, “How the US and Israel weakened and blinded Iran to take control of its skies in the opening hours.” Yesterday’s most militarily significant quote arrived courtesy of Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan “Raisin’” Caine, who said simply, “Local air superiority has been established over Iran.”

That’s a big development.

For comparison, four years into the Proxy War, Russia has yet to achieve air superiority over Ukraine. For example, Moscow’s non-stealth jets cannot safely fly over Kyiv. Air superiority means that the country enjoying it can strike targets anywhere it wants, whenever it wants, without significant fear of loss. So Iranian troops, missile crews, and military leaders are now all toads ‘neath the harrow.

On Day One, the U.S. sent B-2 stealth bombers— our $2 billion invisible ones. By Day Two, they’d switched to B-1 Lancers, which are older, non-stealth bombers that carry much more ordnance but need safe skies to operate. By yesterday afternoon, Israeli media reported its jets were flying directly over Tehran and dropping bombs on target.

They don’t send non-stealth bombers into contested airspace. They only send them when it’s safe.

Iran has plenty of ballistic missiles— they’ve been firing waves of them at Israel, U.S. bases across the Middle East, and its neighbors’ hotels. But every launch is a death sentence for the launcher. U.S. and Israeli surveillance assets —satellites, drones, AWACS— are watching every square mile of Iranian territory in real time. If a missile goes up, its origin coordinates go straight to the nearest fighter or bomber, and that launcher ceases to exist before the crew can reload.

It’s a losing trade every time. Iran fires a missile that may or may not get intercepted by Iron Dome or a U.S. destroyer’s Aegis system. In exchange, it permanently loses the launcher, the crew, and whatever else was parked nearby. The Iranians are spending down an inventory they can’t replace while the U.S. rotates fresh aircraft off carrier decks.

Satellite imagery already shows damage to a major missile base near Najafabad in Esfahan Province. (I did not make those names up.) Underground ballistic missile facilities have been hit by B-2 bombers carrying 2,000-pound bunker busters. The IDF says it’s specifically targeting Iranian leadership and ballistic missile launchers — a combination that means every launch order might be the last one the guy giving it ever issues.

Iran’s military is caught in a doom loop: hide and survive, or shoot and be destroyed.

🚀 The anti-war narrative is back on the front burner! And it is reaching full, shrill steam. Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans —who for the last four years traded their US flags for Ukrainian ones and clapped like mental patients at snack time over funding Kiev’s conman with hundreds of billions— have suddenly turned on a dime and become studious anti-war philosophers.

Congressman Adam Schiff, who never met a weapons package for Ukraine he didn’t love, gravely warned about “the dangers of unilateral executive military action.” The New York Times editorial board —which ran “The Case for Arming Ukraine” at least four hundred times— published “The Risks of Escalation in Iran” before the first B-2 had even returned to base.

Suddenly, everyone on cable news can pronounce “Strait of Hormuz” and has strong opinions about the War Powers Act. These are the same people who couldn’t find Iran on a map last Tuesday but are now deeply concerned about “regional destabilization.” Please. The New York Times, this morning:

Afghanistan? Iraq? HOW ABOUT UKRAINE?? It’s funny, I don’t remember the Times describing Biden’s $175+ billion Ukraine adventure as “embracing military power.” That was called “defending democracy.” When Biden armed an endless, four-year proxy war against a nuclear superpower —a conflict that involved zero U.S. or NATO interests— they swooned over his cabbage-like statesmanship.

But when Trump uses the U.S. military directly —with air superiority established in 48 hours— suddenly, it’s reckless warmongering.

They spent four years cheering a proxy war against a nuclear superpower and snored louder than a bulldog after a big meal. Now they’ve suddenly discovered the horrors of military conflict and the “risks of escalation”— just in time for a Republican president to be the one in command.

In March, 2024, Democrats vowed, “We must stand firm against authoritarian regimes who threaten global security.” But in March, 2026, they now say, “This reckless military adventurism puts American lives at risk.” There are more quotes like this than I can count. I could do this all day.

And finally: welcome back the body count graphic, which suddenly reappeared on CNN’s chyron after a four-year hiatus. The network that never once ran a casualty ticker for Ukraine —where conservative estimates range past half a million dead— has re-discovered an urgent new interest in counting in single digits.

Spoiler alert: The body count isn’t about the bodies.

🌍🇺🇸 ESSENTIAL NEWS AND COMMENTARY 🇺🇸🌍

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Meanwhile, here at home, the Supreme Court delivered another knockout blow to the so-called “trans movement.” The Washington Post ran the angry headline, “Supreme Court sides with Christian parents in battle over school trans policies.” It turns out that parents’ rights are greater than crazy woke progressive rights. Who knew?

Once again, we see the corporate media trick of burying good news in a manure mishmash of confusing double negatives. Supreme Court blocks California law that blocked educators from telling parents about a student’s sexual orientation or gender identity.

In plain English: California forced teachers to keep parents in the dark for years while their kids suffered from gender dysphoria. Yesterday, the Supreme Court said, “umm, no. We’re not doing that.”

The case, Mirabelli v. Bonta, involved California school policies that precluded teachers from telling parents when their children “socially transitioned” at school— meaning schools could call your son Elizabeth, use different pronouns like “she,” “her,” “they,” and “Siri,” and send your son to the girls’ change-out room without ever telling you. The state’s position was essentially: trust us, bro, we are experts who know what’s best for your kid.

Parents’ position was: hell no, that’s our kid.

Late yesterday afternoon, in an emergency opinion that supporters are calling “a historic and groundbreaking victory for parents’ rights,” the high court temporarily put California’s gender-bending policy on ice while the case proceeds. The Court explained, “Parents have sincere religious beliefs about sex and gender, and they feel a religious obligation to raise their children in accordance with those beliefs.”

California Attorney General Rob Bonta was “disappointed” with the decision. “We remain committed to ensuring a safe, welcoming school environment for all students while respecting the crucial role parents play in students’ lives,” which was pretty rich.

First, respecting parents’ role? Was that a joke? Second: Safety! Hiding behind student “safety” was especially rich, since one of the children involved in the case had attempted suicide after teachers called her a “he” for years— and helped hide her untreated, increasingly severe mental issues from her parents the whole time.

Well, I suppose there’s one thing California’s schools are good at. They can’t teach kids to read at grade level, they can’t keep fentanyl out of the bathrooms, and they can’t balance a budget, but they can coolly keep secrets about your child’s mental health struggles with the smug moral superiority of Jeffrey Epstein’s favorite banker.

Fortunately, the Court disagreed with the State of California. Parents, it said, have “primary authority with respect to the upbringing and education of children,” including “the right not to be shut out of participation in decisions regarding their children’s mental health.” In her concurrence, Justice Amy Coney Barrett said if California’s law stands, “parents will be excluded — perhaps for years — from participating in consequential decisions about their child’s mental health and wellbeing.”

So … California’s law was not safety. It was the opposite of safety. In other words, the Court quietly agreed that California’s policy endangers students.

California was basically running a trafficking program for confused ten-year-olds under the guise of ‘witness protection’— relocating children’s identities without notifying their own families.

Parents just got unWitProtected, or however you say it. We’re so close now. It’s almost over.

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In other terrific legal news unrelated to the war, the Supreme Court stopped New York Democrats from racially gerrymandering New York City’s only Republican congressional district out of existence. And the underlying court decision it overruled was off-the-chain bonkers. The New York Times reported, “In Republican Win, Supreme Court Retains G.O.P. District in New York.”

Representative Nicole Malliotakis holds New York’s 11th District — Staten Island plus a little slice of Brooklyn. It’s the sole Republican seat in all of New York City, which is still one too many for Democrats. Back in January, a state trial court judge ruled that the district must be redrawn because —and I promise I am not making this up— it is unconstitutional for black and Hispanic voters to comprise a large share of any Republican-leaning district.

It’s so unbelievable that you’ll probably have to read it again. The trial court didn’t say minority voters were being prevented from voting. It said they were voting for the wrong party. The ruling literally held that minority voters have a constitutional right to be gerrymandered into a district where they form the majority of the Democrat electorate.

Literally. The trial judge wrote that minority voters must be placed in a district with “the majority of people voting in the primary of the dominant party,” which everybody in the Big Apple knows is the Socialist Party. I mean Democrats. Same thing.

In other words, under the trial court’s theory, if you’re black or Hispanic and you live in a Republican district, the state constitution allegedly required the government to shift your district lines until you’re electing Democrats. Rather than a “voting rights theory,” you might call it a plantation theory.

The United States Supreme Court stayed the NY redraw in another unsigned emergency order yesterday afternoon. It has been absolutely clear that race is an impermissible basis for drawing electoral districts. Notwithstanding that, the three liberal justices still dissented. Of course.

Justice Sotomayor complained that the Court, since it had refused to get involved in Texas’s and California’s redistricting fights late last year, was applying “rules for thee, but not for me.” Whataboutism. Then she pivoted and also whined that “the Court thrusts itself into the middle of every election-law dispute.”

It’s ironic, because in the Texas and California cases, Sotomayor wanted the Court to intervene. Now, not so much. Progressive double standards.

Anyway, the only Republican district in New York City has survived to fight another day.

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As we consider where the Iran war is headed, let’s check in on Trump’s first regime-change operation this year. Yesterday, Bloomberg reported, “Venezuela’s Crude Exports Double in February Under US Oversight.” It’s even better than that. Stand by for refueling.

Remember the good old days in January, when President Trump “intervened” in Venezuela, and the entire progressive establishment lost its collective mind? “Another Iraq!” they shrieked. “Boots on the ground!” They howled, “Regime change never works!” And they kept saying the word, “quagmire!”— although I’m pretty sure they don’t know what that word means.

Believe it or not, all that was two months ago. Let’s check in.

Bloomberg reported yesterday that Venezuela’s oil exports doubled in February. They’ve shot up to roughly 1.4 million barrels a day from only 800,000 in January. That’s $2 billion in oil sales in a single month —which is a lot for that benighted country— all flowing through U.S.-managed accounts earmarked for the benefit of the Venezuelan people.

They expect another $5 billion in the coming months.

Here’s the part progressives wish would disappear. Under former President Maduro (now president of his cell block), Venezuela was shipping 90% of its oil to China. For the privilege, China got a massive discount, paying as much as $21 per barrel below market price.

In other words, Maduro’s dictatorial regime was fire-selling Venezuelan oil to prop himself up while his people starved. Under the new U.S.-supervised arrangement, that discount collapsed to just $6 below market. Venezuela now makes nearly 30% more on every single barrel, and the money is going into humanitarian and reconstruction programs instead of into Maduro’s Swiss bank accounts.

Mind you, I’m not arguing that intervention is justified whenever a third-world dictator strikes a bad deal with China. At the end of the day, that’s a Venezuela problem. Driving China out of Latin America was the goal, but a side benefit is that Venezuelans are almost immediately enjoying the blessings of de-Chinazation.

🚀 So let’s check the ‘quagmire scoreboard’ (South American edition). Two months in, we have: a murderous dictator captured, political prisoners freed, diplomatic relations renewed, elections being planned, oil exports doubled, revenue redirected to the people, and China lost its sweetheart deal on oil stolen from American oil companies.

President Trump will never get the credit for this, but this is truly historic. I’m not sure there’s anything historically comparable to this turnaround in Caracas. Remember— Trump did something new, bold, and different with this new style of regime change. He took out the leader, but left the government in place. That was a massive political risk, but it also created dizzying new possibilities.

Trump’s innovation was making a lightning recovery possible. I can’t find a single example of a post-regime-change country hitting all of these markers within an eye-watering 60 days:

• Dictator removed and facing criminal trial

• Political prisoners freed (540+ and counting) and political prisons closed

• Sweeping amnesty law passed covering 25 years

• Oil exports doubled — $2B in revenue in one month, flowing through transparent channels

• Diplomatic relations restored

• 10-12% annual GDP growth projected

• No ongoing military occupation

• China weakened

Maybe most astonishing of all: rebuilding Venezuela is costing America nothing; we are actually making money on it. Talk about the Art of the Deal. If you’d tried to sell me on this idea a year ago, I’d have called it impossible. I probably would have argued with you about it.

What makes the Venezuelan recovery historically unique is its self-funding mechanism. Every other major post-regime recovery —Germany, Japan, South Korea, Iraq— required massive external capital infusion. Once again, Trump saw potential that nobody else did: use Venezuelan assets.

Caracas crouches over the world’s largest proven oil reserves. The wealth was always there. The only thing standing between Venezuela and prosperity was the guy who was stealing everything. Remove the guy, redirect the revenue, and the country starts healing— using its own money.

That’s not just historically fast. Trump might have created a genuinely new model: the anti-quagmire, featuring rapid regime change without nation-building— where liberating a country’s own resources is the reconstruction plan. No occupations, no hundred-billion-dollar restoration packages, no forever wars.

If that’s a ‘quagmire,’ then we need more and better quagmires.

Iran is a bigger, pricklier problem than Venezuela. But Trump’s unprecedented, creative approach to the Caracas turnaround suggests his team also has similarly innovative ideas for handling Tehran. If so, it’s good news for us, and great news for the Iranian people. Let the man work.

Have a terrific Tuesday! Bring your falafels back here tomorrow morning for more news hummus, with a creamy side dish of insightful commentary. See you then!

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