Agree. But my guess is he’ll run as an independent once Biden secures the DNC nomination. And if he already has this much support in the polls, he shouldn’t have a problem meeting the threshold to hopefully be in the debates…
Agree. But my guess is he’ll run as an independent once Biden secures the DNC nomination. And if he already has this much support in the polls, he shouldn’t have a problem meeting the threshold to hopefully be in the debates…
That would be an interesting scenario. If he runs as an independent, who would he siphon more votes from, Biden (assuming he's nominee) or Trump (assuming he's the nominee)?
My guess would be from Biden. I envision a scenario somewhat similar to how Trump won in 2016. 3rd party/independent candidates siphoned enough votes from Hilary to lead to a Trump win. But I do think he could attract some Republican voters as an Independent who can't get over the mental hurdle of voting "Democrat" (if he were the DNC nominee). I also think there would be a much larger percentage across the board voting for RFK as an independent than were voting 3rd party in 2016, especially if he's able to debate.
I would think the opposite. I would expect the majority of RFK support to come from the right; conservatives and libertarians. His main focus is on dismantling deep state, biomedical fascism, vaccines. All items many folks on the right are concerned with and are pretty much anathema to most on the left. Only his name would attract some older Dems, but they'd probably say "ick, so much disinformation!" as soon as they heard what he is about.
I think the spread will be a lot more evenly distributed between the left and right. But, as anecdotal evidence, I have heard from a few friends who aren't Republicans per say but voted for Trump at least once, and are "anti-vaxx" for lack of a better term, and are not planning to vote for RFK and will either vote for Trump or Desantis. That said, it's still very early on, so things could change.
Yes, it's such a unique situation and environment now, it's hard to to predict. I'm a double Trump voter who would have a hard time voting for Trump if RFK was on the ballot.
Agree. But my guess is he’ll run as an independent once Biden secures the DNC nomination. And if he already has this much support in the polls, he shouldn’t have a problem meeting the threshold to hopefully be in the debates…
That would be an interesting scenario. If he runs as an independent, who would he siphon more votes from, Biden (assuming he's nominee) or Trump (assuming he's the nominee)?
My guess would be from Biden. I envision a scenario somewhat similar to how Trump won in 2016. 3rd party/independent candidates siphoned enough votes from Hilary to lead to a Trump win. But I do think he could attract some Republican voters as an Independent who can't get over the mental hurdle of voting "Democrat" (if he were the DNC nominee). I also think there would be a much larger percentage across the board voting for RFK as an independent than were voting 3rd party in 2016, especially if he's able to debate.
I would think the opposite. I would expect the majority of RFK support to come from the right; conservatives and libertarians. His main focus is on dismantling deep state, biomedical fascism, vaccines. All items many folks on the right are concerned with and are pretty much anathema to most on the left. Only his name would attract some older Dems, but they'd probably say "ick, so much disinformation!" as soon as they heard what he is about.
I think the spread will be a lot more evenly distributed between the left and right. But, as anecdotal evidence, I have heard from a few friends who aren't Republicans per say but voted for Trump at least once, and are "anti-vaxx" for lack of a better term, and are not planning to vote for RFK and will either vote for Trump or Desantis. That said, it's still very early on, so things could change.
Yes, it's such a unique situation and environment now, it's hard to to predict. I'm a double Trump voter who would have a hard time voting for Trump if RFK was on the ballot.
In a 3 way, I can't imagine RFK Jr getting more than 20%. Like, Ross Perot numbers. Which gave the victory to the Dem.
Yep, Perot gave us Bill & Hillary