☕️ NATO ORIGAMI ☙ Saturday, March 21, 2026 ☙ C&C NEWS 🦠

A big picture emerges from the Iran war, putting Trump in the driver's seat; war is "winding down"; Europe's energy crisis kill box; Senator Fetterman saves the GOP again; and much more.

Good morning, C&C, it’s Saturday! And the Childers clan is on the road, headed back to the sunnier climes of our beloved Sunshine State. Please excuse the travel interruptions of our regularly scheduled programming, which will resume on Monday morning at the usual time. Today’s roundup includes: the outlines of Trump’s biggest, boldest, most breathtaking plan begin to take shape, and it’s even more astonishing than we could imagine; just wait till you see the dots falling into place; Trump tweets about war winding down; Europe oil sanctions backfire; and Senator Fetterman rides to Republicans’ rescue. Again.

⛑️ C&C ARMY BRIEFING — IRAN WAR UPDATE ⛑️

🚀 It began innocently enough. Yesterday’s Business Standard reported, “Iran fires two missiles at Diego Garcia, signalling extended strike range.” But these two missiles —unlike the thousands of previous Iranian missiles launched in every direction— changed everything. According to Democrats and their pet experts and media allies, Iran couldn’t do this.

Colorfully named Diego Garcia is a remote, boomerang‑shaped coral atoll in the middle of nowhere in the central Indian Ocean. Part of the Chagos Archipelago, it pokes out of the water somewhere in the middle of the Indian Ocean— and most importantly, it hosts a major, highly strategic joint US‑UK military airbase.

This isolated atoll is a pretty busy place. It hosts a long airfield, a deep‑water port, large fuel storage, and surveillance and communications facilities. Strategically, it is a key power‑projection hub across the Middle East, South Asia, and East Africa, and has supported major operations like the 1991 Gulf War, the 2001 strikes in Afghanistan, and the 2003 Iraq invasion.

On an aside, debate is currently swirling around ownership of the island, since native Mauritians claim Britain “unlawfully colonized” Diego Garcia back in the day, and now they want it back. They argue the British had no right to forcibly evict the island’s peaceful inhabitants without notice, for a military base, and they also accuse the British of being tea-swilling numpties. (There is some merit in the latter argument.)

So far, the International Court has sided with Mauritius, the debate grinds on, and British PM Kier Starmer has greatly annoyed President Trump by suggesting he was willing to turn the Chagos Islands and the key military base back over to Mauritian natives. But that is a side issue, so never mind.

🔥 As part of its Iran-is-a-peace-loving-country-that-threatens-nobody narrative, corporate media has long assured its bewildered readers that Diego Garcia was safe and sound, since it is 4,000 kilometers from the nearest launch point in Iran.

Peace-loving Iran has long publicly claimed to voluntarily cap its ballistic missiles at around 2,000 km, which would set Diego Garcia safely out of reach.

The Iranians lied. I realize that may be hard for some people to believe.

Yesterday, after news broke that the British had finally completed processing America’s paperwork and, with great fanfare, now that things are “winding down,” approved US forces to use the atoll for Operation Epic Fury. Iran was disgruntled. The mullahs liked it better when the British were refusing to let US planes launch from Diego Garcia.

So the IRGC launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles —missiles it supposedly didn’t have— at Diego Garcia. US forces reported that one misfired and hit a seagull or something, and the other was intercepted by a ship-based missile defense system. No damage.

The Wall Street Journal, in a sensational paroxysm of understatement, called the intermediate-range ballistic missiles “possibly an undisclosed system.” The thing is, the 4,000 kilometers to Diego Garcia is only the revealed range; the actual range of these missiles could be much farther. “The move marked Iran’s first operational use of IRBMs,” the Journal blandly continued, “and a significant attempt to reach far beyond the Middle East.”

That is all very interesting, and a couple of corporate media outlets like the Journal reported it on the back pages, but nobody in trad-media reported the real story. It’s not about Iran attacking Diego Garcia at all. London is about 4,500 kilometers from Tehran. A ballistic missile with an actual range of 4,500 km, if launched from western Iran, could theoretically strike most of Western Europe, reaching as far as southern England.

🚀 If the actual range is more like 5,000 km, then all of Europe lies under Tehran’s missile envelope. Here’s how one shocked Middle East analyst saw it:

“The real story,” the analyst said, “is not whether the missile was intercepted.” Indeed. But that simplistic narrative is all corporate media is reporting. They are studiously and completely ignoring the missile launch’s graver significance. It’s like reporting a school shooting by focusing on the risks of gun jams.

In theory, assuming the systems are well-maintained (anybody’s guess), NATO countries are protected by robust missile defense shields originally designed for a conflict with Russia. But Iran is a different type of threat. The mullahs are … less predictable than the Russians.

The unexpected appearance of Iranian IRBMs baffled analysts. “The threat posed by Tehran to Europe proved to be much more real last night than analysts previously thought,” ITA Milradar reported. And maybe Trump was onto something.

“This technological and tactical development provides further context to Washington’s concerns,” ITA said, “highlighting one of the key reasons that pushed the American administration to launch the current campaign of strikes against Tehran’s military infrastructure.”

Wait! You mean … they might’ve had a key reason apart from Trump having a bad day or being somebody’s puppet?

Huh. Here’s the question: if Iran successfully concealed its lies about its “voluntary cap” on long-range missiles— what else has it lied about? What about its “voluntary restraint” from developing nuclear weapons? Let’s consider the possibilities. One of these must be true:

1. The peace-loving Ayatollah had no intention of building nukes, just as he said (even if he did lie about the missile thing);

2. The lizard-lipped Ayatollah did want nuclear weapons, and did lie about it, but the Iranians are too dumb to actually build one or keep it secret; or

3. The sinister Ayatollah did want nukes, did lie about it, and was doing everything he could to get some on his long-range missiles.

Go ahead. Pick one. Or, if I somehow missed a valid option (I doubt it), let me know in the comments.

🚀 The long-range missiles Iran launched at Diego Garcia were reportedly in the Khorramshahr family (you wouldn’t want that family as neighbors). Open‑source analysts describe the Khorramshahr’s wide, conical nose —about 1.5 meters in diameter— and its heavy payload as perfect for holding a nuclear device.

I’m just saying.

Even though it failed, the Diego Garcia strike was a proof‑of‑concept for the delivery half of a future Iranian nuclear deterrent: it demonstrated that Iran can loft a large, nuclear‑sized payload to at least intermediate‑range distances.

That was almost certainly the message the Iranians intended to send when they pressed the launch button.

People, like Rand Paul, who airily dismiss Iran’s ability to create a nuclear weapon or evade inspections —how could they?— have to make themselves voluntarily schizophrenic. They have to simultaneously believe that Iran can successfully build high-tech, long-range, nuclear-capable missiles —and keep that program safely secret— but still somehow can’t cobble together a nuclear payload to put in them, despite all that 60% enriched uranium.

Sometimes I wonder: what evidence would Rand Paul accept? Like, does he need to see the weapon? Does he need to work the Geiger counter for himself? Like, what’s the minimum ‘evidence’ that would convince him that Iran was getting dangerously close?

How about two nuclear-capable missiles lying in the Indian Ocean not far from Diego Garcia? Will that do it?

But wait. There’s so much more.

🚀 Europe’s passivity makes much more sense now. Especially when you remember how weak it really is. For thirty years, European governments relied on Uncle Sam, treating serious war on the continent as unthinkable, and treating their defense budgets as bills to be shaved or siphoned, not as insurance policies to be paid.

Now —just as Iran has demonstrated a missile that can reach well into Europe’s neighborhood— the continent has hollowed‑out armies, thinned-out ammunition stocks (the rest forwarded to Kiev’s comedian), a bright-green energy crisis, and withered industry— so its leaders are clinging to legalisms about “not being a party to the conflict” because they know they are already in range but not remotely ready.

For instance, and without limitation, the entire modern British Army could fit inside Gainesville’s college football stadium (the “Swamp” to Gator fans). The Royal Navy started 2026 with just seven active frigates and six destroyers— the smallest escort fleet since the English Civil War in the 1600s. The EU can’t even provide Ukraine with the weapons and ammo it promised, never mind what Kiev needs.

In that light, NATO’s initial restraint is less principled neutrality and more of a quiet admission that they’ve disarmed themselves into helpless bystanders in a war that can now hit them at home.

The Chicken Kiev has come home to roost.

🚀 Along with this brutal wake-up call, the Europeans received another shock yesterday. CNN reported, “Trump says US considering ‘winding down’ Iran war, as US removes sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil.” Hahaha! Wait till you read his Truth Social:

Journalist and author Glenn Greenwald, whom I mostly otherwise enjoy, sneered. “This sounds like a very, very, very far distance from ‘unconditional surrender,’ but if Trump wants to declare victory and pretend that something important was accomplished so that he can pull out, the sooner the better. Let him throw a parade for himself if that will help.”

Glenn, first of all, stop taking everything Trump tweets so seriously. Second, you should read more carefully. (Glenn is a former lawyer. He should read more carefully.) Trump didn’t say we were winding down Operation Epic Fury. He said he was considering it. He probably considers a lot of things.

More to the point, on the same day the Iranians revealed they can reach most of Europe with their missiles, Trump said he was ‘considering’ letting the Europeans take over from here. You’ve got this, Trump was saying. It should be easy!

🚀 Trump has been beating Europe like a red-headed stepchild ever since he took the oath of office. First, he sent JD Vance to scold them that we no longer share values. Then, the tariffs.

Within weeks of taking office, Trump slapped 25% tariffs on European steel and aluminum, which escalated to 30% across the board by July. The EU threatened retaliation —the “nuclear” option— but blinked, and eventually accepted a 15% tariff rate plus $750 billion in U.S. energy purchase commitments— a deal that amounted to Europe paying rent for continued access to American markets. Thank you for shopping at Uncle Sam’s!

In June, Defense Secretary Hegseth delivered an ultimatum to NATO defense ministers in Brussels: increase to 5% of GDP on defense, by the summit at The Hague, or face consequences nobody wanted to spell out. For context, most NATO countries were barely limping along toward the old 2% target. France, Italy, and the UK nodded slowly, knowing full well they couldn’t afford it— the diplomatic equivalent of a New Year’s resolution to start going to the gym. Sure, that sounds great.

More recently, after Iran lit the Strait of Hormuz afire, Trump saw his opening. On March 16th, he demanded that NATO allies and China step up to secure the Strait— the narrow corridor through which their oil flows, not ours.

“It’s only appropriate,” Trump told the Financial Times, “that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there.” He warned that a refusal would be “very bad for the future of NATO.”

Europe said nein. Germany’s defense minister asked, with unintentional comedy, “What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot do?” Britain’s puffed-up Prime Minister Kier Starmer vowed the UK “will not be drawn into the wider war.” The EU’s foreign policy chief said there was “no appetite” to expand operations.

Trump shrugged: “We don’t need any help, actually.” Which sounded like backing down— until yesterday, when he posted that the Strait “will have to be guarded and policed by other Nations who use it — the United States does not.” He even added, dripping with delicious sarcasm, that “it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

Yesterday, he called them out as cowards. Explicitly. In all-caps:

Trump isn’t threatening to abandon Europe. He’s showing them what abandonment looks like, one tick at a time, until the cost of saying “no” exceeds the cost of saying “yes.”

And it’s just getting worse for Europe, because the Strait isn’t their only problem. It’s their third problem. Possibly their fourth.

🚀 Let’s start with the energy problem. Europe entered 2026 already enervated— its gas reserves sat at just 46 billion cubic metres at the end of February, down from 60 bcm in 2025 and 77 bcm in 2024. They’re burning through reserves faster than they can replace them.

Then Iran bombed Ras Laffan —Qatar’s crown jewel, the largest LNG export facility on Earth— and took out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity in a single strike. Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery —730,000 barrels a day— has now been hit two days running. Brent crude closed Friday at $112 a barrel. Europe’s natural gas prices jumped +60% since the war started.

Consider where Europe gets its energy. Before 2022, it was from Russia. Then they giddily sanctioned Russian gas twenty-two times to punish Putin over Ukraine— a moral stand they could afford so long as Middle Eastern energy was cheap and flowing. But now the Middle Eastern supply is on fire, literally, and the Russian gas they sanctioned is still flowing— but flowing to China and India. At a discount.

Europe cut off one supplier to punish a war, and now can’t access the other supplier because of a different war. They’ve sanctioned themselves into an energy cul-de-sac.

Next, cast your mind back to that other war, Ukraine. At this February’s Ramstein meeting, Europe promised Kiev $38 billion in military aid. They pledged two million artillery shells a year— a target they’ve been chasing since 2024 and still haven’t hit.

They are simultaneously trying to arm Ukraine, rearm themselves against a newly revealed Iranian missile threat, prepare for war with Russia, and do all three on defense budgets they’ve been shaving for thirty years. Sooner or later, something has to give.

Europe is in an economic kill box. They can’t ask Russia for energy help, because they’re in a proxy war with Russia. They can’t get Middle Eastern energy, because the Middle East is burning and the Strait is closed. They can’t project military power, because they forwarded all their ammunition to Kyiv. They can’t buy their way out, because Trump’s tariffs are draining their trade surplus.

If you only read corporate media, you’d think Europe was sitting pretty.

🚀 And now, they can’t even hide behind distance, because Iran just proved it can hit London.

This is the context for Trump’s sarcastic Truth Social post. “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed by other Nations who use it.” He knows they can’t do it. They know they can’t do it. The post isn’t a policy proposal. It’s a mirror— and what NATO sees reflected in the mirror is thirty years of defense freeloading, energy dependency, and strategic complacency staring back at them.

Trump isn’t abandoning Europe. He’s delivering the invoice. But he’s actually doing them a favor. He’s showing them.

Can you begin to see it now, the awesome scope of a world-changing project far bigger than anything corporate media experts ever considered? We are quickly approaching the culmination of a breathtaking, multifaceted plan that started on January 20, 2025.

The tariffs made Europe economically dependent. The 5% NATO demand exposed their military weakness. The Ukraine ammunition drain emptied their reserves. The Hormuz closure cut off their access to energy. Meanwhile, Trump has turned the U.S. into a net energy exporter.

Yesterday, Iran’s Diego Garcia launch just proved the Europeans are within missile range of a regime they can’t deter. And now, with Europe broke, disarmed, energy-starved, ammunition-depleted, and staring at an Iranian missile envelope that covers London and Paris— now Trump tweets that maybe they should handle the Strait themselves. It should be simple!

Trump isn’t winding down. He’s winding up. He’s ratcheting the pressure to the precise point where Europe’s only rational move is to come to the table and agree to whatever he’s actually asking for— which almost certainly isn’t just Hormuz patrol duty. Which he’s already getting.

But what does President Trump want?

🚀 At minimum, it will be a restructured NATO where Europe pays its share, buys American energy and equipment, and stops pretending that a continent of 450 million people needs a country 4,000 miles away to defend it. And who knows what else Trump could ask for and get. Greenland? A whole new Eurasian security architecture? Free espresso and croissants for life?

The Strait is just the opening bid. The real deal is everything else.

Every good negotiator knows that you don’t start with what you want. You start with something so unreasonable that when you offer what you actually want, it feels like a gift.

Each “unreasonable” Trump demand from the past fourteen months —Greenland, 5% NATO, the tariffs, the mandatory energy and weapons purchases— suddenly looks like table-setting. Trump wasn’t making random demands; he was accumulating chips. The Iran war didn’t create his leverage; it has suddenly and unexpectedly revealed his leverage.

Every time I think I have it all mapped out, Trump folds the map again, and voilá, he makes it into a little Origami Space Shuttle. Then he folds it again, and it’s a tiny Swiss village. Then, flip-flap-flop, it’s the White House, with the new wing. Life-sized.

How do you like those dots?

🌍🇺🇸 ESSENTIAL NEWS AND COMMENTARY 🇺🇸🌍

🔥🔥🔥

It’s Saturday, which means the Democrats are outraged. Yesterday, the Guardian reported, “Democrats outraged as Fetterman votes to advance Markwayne Mullin nomination.”

Yesterday, Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman became the only Democrat and the key vote joining seven Republicans on the Senate committee on homeland security in advancing Markwayne Mullin’s nomination from the panel to the full chamber. The Senate could confirm Senator Mullin (R-Ok.) as early as next week.

Six Democrats joined committee chair Rand Paul (R-Ky.) in voting against advancing Mullin’s nomination.

Without Fetterman crossing the aisle —essentially switching spots with Rand Paul— Mullin’s nomination would have been scratched in committee and DHS would remain leaderless. Rand Paul’s objections appear to stem from a personal feud he’s had with Mullin since 2017, after Rand Paul got in a scrap with his neighbor that broke one of Paul’s ribs. Mullin had wisecracked that he could understand why the neighbor attacked Paul. And that was that.

Senator Paul can hold a grudge with the best of them.

It’s not a great look for Republicans, but thanks to a jab-injured Democrat, a GOP crisis was narrowly avoided. Meanwhile, the Democrats are not happy with their Pennsylvania Senator. Among registered Democrat voters in Pennsylvania, only 22% approve, with 62% disapproving of him. (Republicans in Pennsylvania hold a 72% approval rating for Fetterman, which could be some kind of record.)

Whatever treatment they offer in that sanitarium where Fetterman went for several months to cure his depression seems like real value for money. I recommend the program to all other Democrats.

Have a super Saturday and a wonderful weekend! Coffee & Covid will be back to normal on Monday morning, with an all-new roundup of essential news and commentary. Till then.

Don’t race off! We cannot do it alone. Consider joining up with C&C to help move the nation’s needle and change minds. I could sure use your help getting the truth out and spreading optimism and hope, if you can: ☕ Learn How to Get Involved 🦠

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