2 Comments
User's avatar
⭠ Return to thread
Freedom Fox's avatar

Exchange. Rate. Follow the exchange rate. USD to CAD, USD to EUR, USD to MXN, USD to GBP, etc.

This will be where the rubber hits the road about tariffs. If, as predicted by esteemed economists, the USD goes UP in value vs. other currencies any increased tariff cost is offset by greater purchasing power in the nation that's been tariffed, their currency value goes down relative the the USD. Which makes an increased tariff a net wash for the stronger USD for buyers exchanging dollars.

In a dynamic economy many factors come into play, tariffs don't stand alone, act as a static 1:1 influence in an economy. Put things in motion and many other things result besides the direct impact. An eye to exchange rates will tell all.

Think about it, what currency will other nations flee to? China's? the Euro? Russia's? The only other viable international exchange system existing today is BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Are the Europeans and Canadians going to start doing business with Putin to hurt Trump? I've seen many foreign policy pivots in my life before, but that would take the cake.

USD wins any tariff war today, in 2025. Maybe in 2030 things would've been different had we been subjected to more of the Biden/Obama/Bush/Clinton/Bush trade policies. But as of today the USD is still the king of all currencies. And Trump's actions will ensure it remains the king of all currencies. Which allows the US to ride out any tariff/trade war that adversaries and frenemies alike wish to engage in.

Expand full comment
Politico Phil's avatar

Yes... and I think Trump agrees with you.

Expand full comment
ErrorError