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I thought I was clear, but to be even MORE clear, I can honestly say I am not taking sides in the primary because I have not made up my mind yet. And when I do, I won't tell anyone. My commitment to C&Cers is that I will unapologetically run valid news stories supporting ALL Republican candidates and I will never run hit pieces against any of them. From day to day, one candidate or another may get more attention, but not because I am leaning in. It's just the day that news item broke.

And thanks in advance for being kind while debating the primary options in the comments!

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I understood. That's why I am a paid subscriber to C&C. I trust you to bring the facts and let me decide. 👍🙂

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I understand what you mean and you are always right to tread carefully on polarizing topics. I am in Florida too and have supported Governor DeSantis all the way. He jumped in early and came down hard on southern nursing homes who were caught in the act of moving the elderly to hospitals. He has delivered a well deserved blow to groomers in lower education and worse groomers in gay bars allowing/welcoming young children. He tore a hole in the fabric of Disney by exposing their agenda and the pedophiles who work for them. Sheriff Judd has been on the front lines of this for a very long time.

What stopped me from going full DeSantis was his last swearing in ceremony a few months ago. There behind him was good old Jeb Bush with a smile on his face like a proud papa. When Jeb was our governor he single handedly destroyed my career along with countless others who were career Department of Corrections employees. All so his private companies could take over and reap the rewards. I was forced to take a demotion and move just to break even after 23 years. The inmates suffered a lot from their takeover as well. The food was disgusting and pre-cooked. The security guards were hired thugs and the health workers were basically regects from security guard agencies like Wackenhut

This creepy love connection between the past governor and the current governor is a real problem. A problem we need to keep a focus on.

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Yes. Way too much love for DESANTIS from Bushes and other nefarious creatures.

I believe DESANTIS has been pushed into this run by deep state as the only one who could eliminate the best PRES we ever had

I love him as my gov but never in 1,000 years would I desert Trump after all he has endured for the values of America. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸. TRUMP 24

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DeSAntis is all in with the "snoops acronym intel agencies! He served as the JAG officer at the Gitmo interrogations of various al Qaeda prisoners.

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That’s a good thing.

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I disagree - his "loyalty" to the CIA will make him a really powerful threat to our personal freedoms (which are hanging by a thread now). That is not a "good thing" to my way of thinking, Benjamin.

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I felt the same way when I saw Jeb Bush supporting him. But I’m glad he did that publicly. Now I know. But imagine who might be supporting him behind the scenes? It’s creepy and scary.

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The Bush family is truly a corrupted group of potentates!! "W" is the goofball member of this "Stooges" parody!

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""W' is the goofball member of this 'Stooges' parody!'"

As I look back on the Bush legacy, my take on Dubya is that his whole "regular guy" persona was an artificial construct. Dubya was always in the neocon mold, following in his father's footsteps. However, they exaggerated his 'black sheep' tendencies to seize on perceptions of populist opposition to Clinton in the 90s. Look at Dubya's behavior in the last ten years, particularly as he has forged a political alliance with Obama and Biden's controllers.

Dubya was basically 'pre-Trump'. It worked as the vast majority of my conservative friends fell for it, even after the 'global war on terror' thing was exposed as bullsh*t as early as 2004. They still voted Bush back in in 2004.

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We haven't had a TRUE "two party" system for decades--what choice did we have in 2004? I believe it was John Kerry in the Donkey Party--so "W" was looking pretty wholesome back then! Our government has been operated by WAR MONGERS for over 60 years. It's why the CIA backed the assassination of JFK because he was NOT predilected toward waging many wars all over the globe to "preserve democracy"--WHAT A CROCK!!

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That is very good information. Thank you!

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I thought it was pretty clear and you made some good points about the key issues that are likely to come out. Sadly, too many Democrats don't see this as an issue because the lawfare is targeting people they disagree with. If the tables were turned, they'd be screaming. :(

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While agree this is true of the die hards that identify as democrat, there are lots of liberal minded people that recognize the injustice of the Trump indictments. Those people must be reminded of the true danger of this lawlessness.

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If it can be done to a former President, we are all at risk!

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It's also being done on steroids to a former President as a very clear message to the rest of us: They are clearly saying "Don't you dare go against us or you know what will happen to you."

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Exactly.

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That’s exactly why it is so important we back Trump. The buck stops here!! He is the only one who can bring the DS scum down!!

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Only our deaths and/or imprisonment won't make any news headlines - we don't pay off the media as the CIA/NSA/FBI collaboratives do!

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WE THE PEOPLE have had NO IDEA how corrupted our "intel system" has become - I know many friends of mine always believed the CIA rubbed out JFK...now I'm becoming a believer of that as well! JFK was NOT a neocon and wanted to end all of the "global military engagements" in which the USA was involved up to that point.

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Sharon Garvin--I would love to meet a "liberal with enough of a functioning mind" that recognizes the injustice. It would certainly make my day, week, month, last three years. Mind you, I live in Oregon so........

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Lots of us "left libertarians" and non-corporate "liberals" who have walked away. It is "left libertarians" who accurately identified corporate interests as the pinnacle of corruption, while "right libertarians" pretended corporations, a la Citizens United, should have all the aggregate rights of their investors.

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Those are good points. I still live in Oregon and maybe not circulating in the right (or is left circle), but it would be refreshing and mean a lot.

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Two thoughts. Run Kennedy as an Independent to split the Dem vote or run him head to head against Trump. Not sure who would win there.... But, currently given the treatment metted out to him, it is a fact, given this treatment he's getting that he's only get more popular! Nto out of the question they would indict and try and convict in DC but he would WIN WIN WIN the general election since ticked off people will vote to screw the system much as it has screwed them. Might be over whelming to such a margin that they couldn't diddle it.... people are very roth right now, and rightly so.

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Trump runs WITH RFK. The media would implode.

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I have been told that RFK said that Moms for Liberty were a terrorist group or something similar and that no one would be better for LGBTQ+++ than he would be.

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I have been told that RFK said that Moms for Liberty were a terrorist group or something similar and that no one would be better for LGBTQ+++ than he would be.

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No matter what "the people" believe...if the elections are rigged once again as they were in 2020--Trump will NEVER win!! I am very, very concerned for his safety, to tell you the truth.

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And those tables will turn; they’ve set the precedence, so, “Game on”!

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Except our side doesn't do it.

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I’m not so sure it would stay that way. I’ve been watching gop politicians for decades. Don’t count on it.

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💯

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Jeff, you're always clear about everything. I don't know how you manage to scan all the news and "news" outlets, digest all the info, winnow the wheat from the chaff, AND present it in such a cogent fashion.

God is truly with you

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U were clear, Jeff. I hear ya.

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You were 100% clear, could not have been clearer. What you stated was an observable fact.

The problem is not with what you wrote but with people who cannot separate their feelings from reality. These people perceive anything that can be remotely construed as something negative toward "their guy" as a personal affront that cannot stand. They are driven by emotion and hysteria.

The left is filled with these sorts of people, their feelings rule their lives. I've been surprised by how the Trump/DeSantis thing has showed just how many on our side are no different.

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"I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."

Barry Goldwater

Any republican candidate who is not righteously angry at what the US government, not just Biden, the US government, is doing to us is not part of the solution.

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Jon, I agree completely. That’s why DeSantis lost me..when he was silent on the Mar-a-lago raid.

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AND Tim Scott immediately responded that he wanted to see what the FBI had on Trump before he termed it a politically motivated hit. C'mon Man! first reaction should be...OF COURSE it's a political hit, they'd have to PROVE otherwise!!! Senator Tim, playing it "safe" isn't wise or even possible--You are the definition of Betrayal to the Commies of Color in our nation. WISE UP and speak out.

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Lawyers cover for each other.

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

Yes, throwing tantrums is always a great way to solve problems.

There's a difference between being angry about something and reacting emotionally to every interaction. The latter is what toddlers do.

We can be angry and channel that into rationale, constructive actions, rather then getting all bent out of shape because someone said something we didn't like.

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It was a child who said the emperor had no clothes.

I think this is one reason so many hate Trump. He points out the obvious lies too many do not want to see or hear.

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

There was once a so called Republican who said speak softly and carry a big stick.

I don't care how loudly a president speaks as long as he uses the big stick.

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AMEN. Give me a loud voice and low gas and food prices

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I agree!! Trump can wield that stick better than any other candidate. The time to come together is now under Trump or we are all screwed!!

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Exactly right!!!

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I disagree with your premise. Trump is the only one who can bring down the evil corrupted establishment. No more nice guys!! DeSantis has a lot to learn still in this dangerous political climate. Trump has taken the blows. He needs to finish the job or we are all screwed!!

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

I supported McCain and Romney, both losers because they wouldn't fight what is now called the deep state.

BHO entrenched and reinforced socialism in the Regulatory State.

The only candidate running for president that has the deep state frightened is Trump.

I'll support candidates feared by the socialists in the US government and in the Republican party.

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I have said many times that I would like my votes for both Bushs, McCain and Romney back since all of them were/are RINO's. I can't even begin to tell you how much I despise the Bushs and Romney now. Having "discovered" what I know about Prescott Bush, it is my humble opinion that neither GHW or GW should have EVER been allowed anywhere near the presidency and the whole family should be stripped of their wealth.

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Agree. I was not happy with W as the candidate because I am totally against political dynasties/aristocracies as a matter of principle. I didn’t vote for him the first time, voted 3rd party as a protest vote. Then when Jeb put his hat in the ring I was even more disgusted. Clearly they think no one else but their family should get the chance to govern in this country 🙄 Entitled jerks.

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Yep but they aren't the only ones that think they are "elite". Sad thing is there are a lot of people who don't want to have to make decisions for themselves so they welcome the nanny state.

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Agree.

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Now WE THE PEOPLE know the "bit of truth" they who are REALLY in charge, have permitted to "escape". The neocons will NEVER release their chokehold on the world governments. It will take YAHWEH to clean house!! 7 years of hell on earth--then the Righteous Kind Jesus will return to earth to clean up the "mess" we humans have made of His once glorious creation.

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Don't forget Neil Bush

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Neil's a tard....

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McCain and Romney didn’t fight the deep stare because they ARE the deep state.

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AMEN, groomed for their roles as young men and rewarded and given accolades for their fine work. Mere Shadows of the men their fathers were I've heard.

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I feel kind of embarrassed now having supported McCain and Romney, though the reasoning at the time still holds up "better than Obama". Just barely, though.

I think Desantis is feared by socialists and government, maybe more than Trump, but he hasn't drawn the fire because he isn't enough of an imminent threat yet

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When Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Karl Rove and Ronna McDaniel are all in for RDS that sends up a red flag for me. I love what I’ve seen him do as governor in FL. but he seems to be getting in line with Establishment RINOS and he needs their money for his campaign. Trump is beholden to no one. I would love to see any of the GOP candidates speak out against the political persecution of DJT but they aren’t which tells me they’re weak cowards and have no integrity to do the right thing regardless of the cost.

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I agree. It is critical we have Trump in office. This has to end now and DeSantis isn’t the one. Not yet and until he proves his allegiance to MAGA Nothing wrong with making America great. You are either on board or you are part of the problem!!

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Same.

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someone who knows the English language and who uses it in the way it was intended. Sweet.

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You are an invaluable resource Jeff and we all so appreciate you! Thank you! God bless you! ❣️❣️

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You were clear. The only thing NOT clear this early, with 15+ months to go, is who will emerge as the candidate with the best chance to beat the PUD (Propped Up Democrat) that they hoist up as puppet-in-charge.

This is a great time to evaluate - too early to go 'all-in' behind any one Republican candidate.

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The best candidate to defeat Biden is the one who has the most connections to swing state voting apparatus. That's where this election will be won or lost - counting the votes, not casting the votes.

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And more accurately, it's just a handful of states in which this is critical. I'm in deep blue California where my Republican vote has no impact on electors, which will always end up Democrat. All my vote can do here is add to the popular vote count, for whatever that is worth.

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And a handful of precincts in those handful of states. Whatever red precincts a state has, Republicans should make sure voter turnout is as close to 100% as possible. If, at 11pm, they determine that there are still 8% of votes not yet cast, shut down the vote counting and reporting and make sure ALL votes get cast and counted. Inactive voters, relocated voters, etc... all should have their ballots counted. Whatever blue precincts a state has, Republicans should send in armies of observers and picture takers, posing as Democrat poll workers if necessary.

Win big where you control, and lose small where you don't.

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Yes. Until we start doing what the Ds do, they won’t stop. Election integrity laws will be passed when the Ds believe it would benefit them.

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Likely true - certainly sad.

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And the one who can clearly read every word of the sentence on the teleprompter.

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My question is who can oppose the Puppet Master? Can Trump fight that he can't see? On the other hand, i entirely distrust the Pope and therefore ALL those who support his kingdom on Earth.

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

Just in case you don't realize this: there are a significant and rapidly growing number of Catholics (like me) who don't believe Jorge Bergoglio (aka Francis) is pope, or even Catholic.

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The commie pope lived in Argentina during their Dirty War.

Students, clergy, and dissidents were kidnapped off the streets and tortured by the military junta that was in charge. Then the prisoners were pushed out of the open doors of a helicopter over open water.

Francis remained silent.

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Not to mention his heresies, cover ups for homo priests abusing children at a school for the deaf and blind(!), and appointing notorious homos to high posts everywhere.

I pray that he repents. But if not, Hell will be HOT for this one.

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To whom much is given much is required. The pope influences many many people; therefore he’s more accountable before God than a shoe salesman.

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I did a multi year project in Buenos Aires right after that, beginning in 1981. From talking to many people who lived there , a lot who became friends, all you say is true. Very nasty business. I am fluent in Spanish, so I talked to many people at all levels of society.

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When I was in Buenos Aires in 2010, the mothers of the "disappeared" would silently protest around the presidential building holding photos of their loved ones that were murdered.

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As a Catholic who has discussed this with other Catholics, yes, this is true. I've even heard some people say he is a false Pope which has happened before in history.

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Yes it has. At least 40 times in the history of the Church.

Yet to suggest Francis is an antipope is somehow shocking.

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No his is the anti pope. Allowing Pachamama the Inca idol in a place of worship? That's.. idolatry. Thou shalt have no other God... thou shall not worship idols... He doesn't believe in God, but he's going to find God all the same on the other side. It remains to be seen what God will tell him...or where he will be sent for rehabilitation.

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

Please help me understand how so many believe the Catholic dogma but yet claim to not support it? Doesn't make sense to me. There is no Holy Father but God Himself. Never was. Pope's are liars all no matter how nice or good they were. They usurped the Apostleship just as Charismatics do. World wide religious apostacy again.

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We do support Catholic dogma, which teaches that a heretic cannot either become pope, nor remain pope if he becomes a heretic after a papal election. (Pope Paul IV, papal bull Cum Ex Apostolaticus Officio, 1559.)

So by refusing to recognize an open heretic, we *are* supporting Catholic teaching.

Francis is NOT pope and never was.

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Maybe this will help. Jesus Himself gave Peter (the first in a long line of popes) His authority (the keys to the kingdom) at Mt. 16:18-19. He included the power to either bind or withhold absolution from sin.

He later did the same thing to the rest of the Apostles in John.

The Church established by Jesus is the Catholic Church. Not the Episcopal, not the Baptists, not some non-denom church on the corner.

That Church, which remember Jesus explicitly gives His authority to bind and loose sin, has explicitly declared many many times that no one outside the Church may obtain salvation.

You cannot go to Heaven if you reject Jesus' own church.

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

I really don't know how I can help you understand that within a post or even a full on discussion. Addressing what the dogma is vs Apostleship and Charismatics, I don't know what you're referring to. I'm not qualified.

Papal Authority was handed to St. Peter from Jesus. That's the root of it. From there I suppose there's weeds to wade through.

And indeed, by your original post here you wouldn't trust me if I could help you understand. Or maybe you would since I don't trust the Pope.

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I agree with you. I am not a Catholic but Life Site news a Catholic news source is where the truth was shared about Covid and the science and us of aborted fetal cell use in development and contents in the hellish Jab. I love them. All other outlets were advising the public it was not tainted. Once again I salute and love those of Life Site News!

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This!! I have wondered from the beginning if he was an anti Christ infiltrator- love my faith but recognize that our so called leaders don’t always serve the best interests of the church

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It's healthy for families to have arguments once in a while.

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I agree

Parents today try to remove all discomfort for their kids

And that’s not healthy. The result is a generation of kids unable to cope with adversity and any difference of opinion.

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The school system has taught this generation of 20-35 year olds that discussing uncomfortable subjects is harmful to their mental health. My kids tell me I’m literally causing them distress and anxiety therefore they don’t want to even have a calm, hear each other out, conversation.

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reminds me of the cry rooms and ‘cry in’ after the election…

Keep being the counter voice of reason for your kids … they need to hear it from their parents

The blessing of the pandemic for me and my kids was it was a light bulb moment that my kids were being indoctrinated to a certain way of thinking and I had to get busy telling them the counter position!!

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Yes, and it’s important for kids to learn that they can like and even love someone and yet heartily disagree with that person.

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I love those couples who say, "we never argue."

Gag.

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just an occasional casual knife throwing contest with the unusual errant throw?

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😂👏🏻👏🏻

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They’re liars!

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Also RFK Jr. (D) is a worthy candidate that is news worthy.

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Yes. He was refused secret service protection by the Biden Administration. He followed all the required applications and the secret service saw no problem but DHS head denied it even with information detailing credible threats to him. No viable candidate has been refused SS protection since the protection began for candidates. Yet scum bag hunter B strolls around with full coverage. Shameful action again by the demoncrats

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Yeah Hunter with secret service protection makes me both livid and disgusted.

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I would love to see a Trump-RFK ticket. 1) the media would implode, and 2) this would produce unlimited voter potential.

In the old-old days opposite parties ran together. These two find common ground in opposing the deep state.

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Ron defending trump would be great. Ron as VP would be great. Trump winning would be great. But, I don’t believe in fair elections anymore. This is all theatre.

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

You were completely clear. Perhaps I had no trouble understanding it because your stance is similar to my own. I see some issues with Trump. I see some issues with DeSantis. I see some issues with the Swami guy. None of them is perfect, but in the end, come fall of 2024, we cannot let whatever issues the nominee has deter us. Four more years of Democrats running the executive branch and in control of the Senate is simply unacceptable.

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Yes, this is pretty much how I feel and think about the issue. I see the pros and cons of each candidate and also don’t want to put all of my eggs in one basket. We have to be able to find a way to stop this current crop of corrupt people regardless of who the candidate ends up being.

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Jeff, I respect you even more for your stance. I, like many others, want to know all I can know about ALL the potential candidates in order to make my best informed decision about who can help lead us out of this horrible state we are in. I haven't made up my mind yet who I like best. It's far too early.

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Same here. And so much can happen in the next year or so!

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I cannot support DeSantis Bc the publisher of his book is a company part of the fox conglomerate so when they said DeSantis supported by Sorros May not have been wrong. He has been a good leader in florida but he punted on insurance issue and cost of living in florida is very high DeSantis is not ready to be president. I am voting antibiden but I don’t support DeSantis as a presidential candidate.

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You were clear! Thanks for weighing in!! It’s one of the reasons we love you and share your writings!!

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“Trump’s now demolishing the primary field and is tied with Biden in the general.” - Jesse Waters

Tied with Biden? 😂 😂

If he was “tied” with biden in real life and not some made up phony poll number, we may as well kiss America goodbye and just go bury ourselves.

It is so ridiculous that anyone repeats made up numbers to try and further manipulate us. Please, please stop with the bull$hit numbers. We see you.

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I so agree. EVERYONE needs to stop giving poll numbers any credence. Poll numbers have NEVER been accurate. NEVER. Well maybe 50-60 yrs ago but not in modern times. I wish everyone would just cease and desist with talking poll numbers. 🤦‍♀️

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I thought we learned in 2016. Everybody laughed at how ridiculous the poll numbers were and so many saw right through how it was manipulated for a reason. And what happens….months later….back to the poll numbers as if nothing was revealed about them. 🤦🏼‍♀️ The sheer stupidity of it all! And the media leads the charge, unsurprisingly. Even Trump touts poll numbers!!! I’m always like…. NOOOOOOO STOP IT!!!

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Nowadays you’d have to be nuts 🥜 to answer a pollster’s call ☎️ . Who knows whether they’re from the fake news 🤥 (or worse)? So maybe only dems and their paid operatives answer the polls; the rest of us talk to our friends, family, neighbors, and (hoping...) their elected representatives.

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Oh I always answer them and record them, find out who paid for it, and if they are coming from the D side, I send the recording to the R side. It is interesting to see how they slant the question from one side or the other. Few of them are really asking open ended questions, they are designed to elicit a certain response. I also am volunteering with AFP making phone calls, it is an open ended survey on issues, and in an hour of calling, I am lucky to get 3 responses, and almost all are over ~age 50 or so. Most people don't answer or hang up before I can even get the first sentence out.

However, for years I was part of a survey panel, where you got 'points' for answering surveys that you could cash in for money or gift cards, and sometimes included opportunities to participate in panel discussions for cash. I got paid $125 cash to talk about cat food for an hour, for instance. Topics were all over the map, from breakfast cereal to politics. The survey company got bought by Ipsos and they started asking too many personal questions so I bailed, but suspect that a lot of the polling respondents come from such panels.

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Wow, this is educational as I never knew about this survey things and that lots of people participate

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I am not sure how big the base is, but it started for me about 25 years ago. A local company called 'Delve' would sign up people to be in their database, and they would call me a few times a month to ask questions, and if I qualified, I would go to their offices to be on a focus group panel. Pay ranged from ~$50-$150 for an hour or 2 of providing opinions. In some cases they would send you products to try at home then come in and talk about them. It was a pretty sweet deal, I was working PT as I had young kids at home so a little extra cash was nice. Over time, Delve got bought by a bigger company, and then a bigger company bought them, and everything started just being online. Rare to get an in person cash offer, mostly it was points for online surveys that you could turn into cash, and it only netted a couple of hundred a year or so. But I do survey work from time time in my business, so I stayed plugged in as it was just interesting to me. The latest iteration was called 'Knowledge Panel' (which I still see in some methodology footnotes as the database they used) but that was I think it was either bought or partners with Ipsos. Started feeling uncomfortable with the idea that they asked a lot more personal questions and no longer made responses optional so I bailed, but my hubby still does them. He gets political surveys from time to time and I look over his shoulder at the questions. But I do answer phone surveys that randomly come in, they are mostly for local and state candidates, and they ask demographic info at the end so when it gets to the income part I hang up. None of their business.

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Or worse.....an AI recording your voice for future manipulation of your family or friends!

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Do you know how easy it is to make up poll numbers?

These are the amount of people I called: random number

Here's the amount answers I got one way: biased number based on random number

Here's the amount that went the other way: random number - biased number based on random number

You can make all this data up without calling a single person! Just make it look reasonable.

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As I recall, the Rasmussen poll told the tale accurately in 2016. No doubt that's been "fixed" since then.

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Rasmussen is generally a conservative pollster that tends to get things more accurately. Or at least they were.

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Reality checks are better. All one had to do was look at how many people were showing up at campaign events in 2016 and 2020 in order to know who was going to win the election. Trumps got tens of thousands while The Witch and Pedo Pete were lucky to get a few hundred most of the time. Remember all the photos?

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Always find the number of people polled. That’s a tell right there.

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Also, look at the polling universe. Sometimes it's 'people', other times it's 'registered voters' and others it's 'likely voters'. I am not clear how they vet these categories, but if it's just asking people about how often they vote, 'likely voters' is suspect to me as people are likely to lie about how often they actually voted as they don't want to look bad. But supposedly, polls of 'likely voters' is supposed to be the most accurate.

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In the state databases of voters, it shows how someone is registered and in which elections they voted (but obv. not *how* they voted). Political parties (and, I assume, pollsters; perhaps the general public, for all I know) can get these databases and from them contact people via the contact info in the database (which isn't always accurate, but they'd keep going until they had the sample size they needed for their statistical estimate). I can't remember how 'likely voter' is typically defined, but it may be something like 'voted in 3 out of the last 4 elections' or similar.

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Well in MO we don't have party registration, so no way of knowing if voters are R or D. The legislature did add a provision to an election bill in 2022 where you can now register as a party, but it is optional. (Reason - they are trying to push towards party registration is because D's vote for the weak R's in the primaries, so trying to keep the D's from getting R ballots in primaries). However, a lot of my R friends refuse to add their party to their registration as they say they will not get their vote counted. Not true, but a lot of people distrust the elections.

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In Colorado, if you are registered as independent you can vote in either primary. As I'll be pretty comfortable with most of the R candidates, my husband and I are seriously considering switching to I, and vote for RFK Jr.

Also Colorado went from a red state to blue the moment mailin votes were ratified in our constitution.

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Most people distrust elections in Oregon Donna, an all vote by mail state. Precinct voting fostered a touch of community, even if we only vote every couple years. I would love to have that back.

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Rich Baris is pretty accurate with his poll numbers. I haven't been following him lately to see if he has any numbers, I'll have to check up on it.

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Rich Baris feels that DeSantis is out of the race.

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Then he's probably right.

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Poll numbers and polls are here to stay. I just ignore them like white noise.

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

Polls are just part of the MSM brainwashing, nothing more...

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Polls are worse than daily weather forecasts.

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They have certainly been politicized, but it's not true that they are inaccurate. The way people interpret them causes issues. Sometimes intentionally. Polls provide a snapshot. They have a margin of error. Yet, people want to read them as if they literally say 49% to this candidate and 47% to that candidate. That's not what they are saying. If you take the margin of error into account it's more like candidate A likely has 44-54% of the vote and candidate B likely has 42-52% of the vote. Candidate A appears to be leading, but it's well within the poll's margin that Candidate B actually wins by a comfortable margin. People would say the poll is inaccurate if Candidate B were to win, but the poll was accurate. The interpretation was inaccurate.

People like Jesse Waters (who let's all remember is on Faux News and therefore is part of the establishment) will use the numbers to tell the story they want people to believe.

All that said, if you look across polls, across multiple polling co's - some with left leans, some with right leans - and average them all out over a 3-month period or so, you can get a pretty good sense of what the mood of the public is and which direction it's heading. It's not 100% accurate, but it's a snapshot that has some value. Way more value than having nothing at all.

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I like seeing what my leftie friends say on FB. One is absolutely insane about Trump, but he never posts a single fact, only invective and mockery, which I think about sums up the Dem side generally. In real life, he's a retired historian who still gives lectures about Native Americans and settlers in his area of the country. He's a great guy in that arena, but the spirit that shows through on his political posts is very off-putting.

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Same here. One of my lefty fb friends just posted about getting blue hats made that said "Make lying great again". The comments all thought that was hilarious and someone volunteered to get the hats made. I'm thinking that I don't really get it. I mean I get it sarcastically but are they really that oblivious to their own party? Cause the other side of me is saying, yes, go for it, advertise what a lying POS your side is standing for and see how many votes that gets.

Most of time their memes don't make sense and are not funny. Kind of blah.

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Yes, this man's FB friends all also chimed in to agree. Once he posted about DeSantis 'banning books' in Florida, and I corrected him with a link to a neutral site listing which books had been assessed by school boards and which retained or tossed. He thanked me, but it appears not to have made a dent in his willingness to do the same thing, over and over, for jollies, it appears.

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I had to unfollow my friends on FB who would make lists like this. It really upset me that people I genuinely liked would be this nasty and disrespectful towards people they disagreed with. And also so gullible to repeat the lies of the media taking heads and politicians.

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Yeah. I would be willing to bet RFK Jr. is beating biden now.

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The Dems are so scared of RFK Jr.

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I have no doubt RFK is beating Brandon, Annie. How long before the left begins indicting him for.. something. They have to remove all competition.

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Worse. They denied him secret service coverage, even though as a candidate he should qualify for it. And with his family's background in assassinations. Though maybe have the deep state guard you is dangerous in itself.

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There has been several well placed internal polls that show he has captured a huge number and that is by solely doing podcasts! The DNC, being the DNC that gave Hilary the questions to the primary and not Bernie, have now decided to have all MSM block all stories about RFK. It’s so bad that RFK is apparently suing Google for censorship!The real irony in this is that because the MSM blocked all conservatives, we got X, Substack and Truthto send things around. Imagine if facebook blocks RFK links!

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I certainly hope so!

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Tied with Biden? Could be true. In my personal experience, all of the democrats I know well enough to discuss anything going on today are oblivious to Biden’s and the democrat party’s flaws and questionable deeds. In a race between Biden and any Republican candidate out there, Biden would nearly unanimously get their vote. They all follow the MSM news. That is all they know. And they don’t think or ask questions.

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Yes, they swallow the sermonizing of the DemoCult Media apparatus that's well crafted, better written than any Phlemzer Ad, almost as well produced as Netfixed or HomeBO. It IS REALITY and disparaging attacking, hateful commentary toward the target of the moment is fulfilling to them. Be it Trump, America, MAGA, Christians, AntiVaxxers, RFK Jr., UnBlack African-Americans, whoever and whatever, there is always a defined "enemy".

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As someone who is very well-versed in survey research, I'll say political polls should always be viewed with the lens of: which polling co. and what is their methodology. Most of them are liberal-leaning companies and their methodology (intentionally or not) skews their results to the liberal side. It's all about the underlying methodology. Who takes their survey? How do they weight the results? How do they define a "likely voter?"

The problem with most polls is that they get massive underrepresentation of Trump supporters taking them b/c Trump supporters generally do not trust the pollsters. This is true for corporate Marketing surveys as well. You have to REALLY work to find Trump conservatives and get them to take a survey.

So, yeah, if the poll is showing Trump tied with "Biden," it's likely Trump is well ahead of "Biden" (whoever or whatever "Biden" is at this point).

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The only "poll" I believed in the 2016 and 2020 elections were turnouts at Trump rallies vs. Biden "rallies". I stood in nearly 1/2 mile long lines at one in 2020, and got turned away from Trump's final 2016 rally in GR MI, while watching 50 people sitting in circles at the very few Biden 2020 "rallies". 2020 was the swing state fix the demoncrats didn't think they needed in 2016. Don't tell Grandma Garland I said this, I'd rather not be persecuted by the Department of "Justice".

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The turnouts for Trump rallies were astounding,I've never in 73 years seen anything like it, and it happened every single time, over and over. The few pathetic public events for Biden were ridiculously small, embarrassingly so. There were so few "supporters" there that the MSM cameras had to use very tight angles so you wouldn't see how sparsely attended Biden's events were. I simply do not believe based on what I observed with my own eyes that Biden got more votes than Trump. I don't think it was even close.

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Agree. There was no evidence that Biden winning was credible or made any sense at all.

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The media likes to pin it on Idiots getting riled up like at a tractor pull with a KKK speaker--after all those church attending Bible believers need some entertainment off of the gun range. Maybe the Koch brothers are paying for people to attend? Studious, educated professionals and poor oppressed folks of color have NO NEED to go to a Biden event in mass, that would be undignified and his quaint stories don't add anything to the mix. They already all know how good they have things as long as Ol'Joe runs the show. See, even when no one shows up you're still the winner in MSM spin.

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Yes, just posted about this on another thread as I do some occasional survey work for small businesses, although informal, such as surveying their current customer list, so I am always interested in methodology, how they word it, and who is paying for it. I record them and send them to whoever I think would be interested.

"likely voter' is suspect to me, as people may lie about how often they vote.

I've compiled door knocking lists for conservative school board candidates the past 3 years based on frequent voters, which I define as those who have voted in either 1, 2 or 3 of the last municipal elections (which have about a 12-14% turnout). Get the list from the county election board. Amazing when you cross reference that with the people who are the most vocal on social media, look them up to see if they have voted in past elections, and oftentimes, they have not. Actually 2 of the conservative candidates who have won in the last 2 SB elections had not voted in past SB elections - but they do now! Heaviest turnout in local elections is in blue precincts, R's need to step it up!

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Well, different polling houses use different likely voter models. Some use self-report as in someone saying "yes, I plan to vote." Others use voting history (which in a survey is also self-reported). Others use age, gender, race, and strength of opinions to try to predict likely voters. So, for example...younger people are less likely. Whites and Asians are more likely. If they have strong opinions to their answers (rating feelings at the high or low end of scales), they would be more likely b/c supposedly more passionate.

It's really a guessing game, and when polls go horribly wrong (when polls attack, lol) it's usually b/c the likely voter models were wrong.

It's also something that left-leaning pollsters frequently get wrong, rating Dem voters as more likely to vote b/c from their biased viewpoint there is always something to be fired up about. Dems and leftists especially do not have good historical awareness. So, when the Supreme Court makes a ruling, they automatically assume that means every Dem is going to be hopping mad and ready to run to the polls. In fact, Republican voters tend to be older, whiter, more steadily employed (aka paying more taxes), and therefore more likely to vote, regardless of what outrage du jour the left whips itself into a frenzy over.

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Yes. In my 'frequent voter' list for school board, (frequent voters in low turnout municipal elections) I sorted by date of birth. ~60% were over age 55, and only 6% were under age 35. On a national scale, this is why we will never get a good 'fix' for social security. Seniors vote, and woe to any politician who talks about reform.

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So the polling companies don't have access to state voter databases showing how often particular voters have voted? I know political parties do have such access.

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Probably depends on how hard they want to work at it. If they are polling just to get the answer they want, rigorous methodology is just an unnecessary expense.

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Kind of like with the Covid clinical trials 😑

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And always, what questions are asked and how are they phrased? That can hugely influence the results of a poll too.

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Absolutely! You can get any result you want if you phrase the question correctly. I used to do census work and we were trained to use the questions as written to prevent skewing the results.

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SO agreed! The "tied with Biden" is nothing more than government propaganda. Quit promoting it, Jeff, please! It's false, just like everything else we're being told!

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To be fair, Jeff wasn’t promoting it IMO. He simply was showing what’s being said by various people. It was a quote, but not Jeff’s.

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Agree.

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Quite honestly, if Biden is said to be "tied with Trump", that's a total lie and no one should take it seriously. After what Biden and his corrupt administration has done to the country the last couple of years, anyone who would still support him now is comatose or totally brain dead. Or a moron.

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Then we better advocate for a return to fair and secure voting so this one doesn’t get rigged. Make sure all the lenient and easy-to-cheat voting policies from 2020 get repealed. Better yet, clean up the rolls. Monitor and observe continuously. Seems like we did this in 2022, and Arizona still completely cheated in plain sight.

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Absolutely correct KTH! Voter rolls bulging with fake names, ERIC being dropped by state after state for being another leftist operation, and brave counties returning to vote in person with ID on paper and counted same day.

Tune in to the Lindell election summit on the 16th & 17th. You will learn more about elections than you thought possible. And it's not a pretty story.

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Vote in person on Election Day! Better yet, volunteer to be a poll watcher or judge. Go to county GOP meetings. Call all your elected representatives and insist on integrity in the elections and ask how the votes are secured in your county. We all must be involved!

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"81 million" of those polled expressed a preference for Biden.

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Tom, I'm sure you have heard this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4XWiKZNMOU

I still smile and shake my head when I hear it.

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The other things about this that I wanted to mention is that:

1) Trump has always been demolishing the primary field. It's never been close. The narrative that it has been close or that he was losing ground was propaganda intended to pump DeSantis' campaign. I think most of us have figured this out by now, but DeSantis is the establishment's candidate, literally hand-picked - and heavily funded - in 2020 to run in 2024.

2) Trump has always been "tied with" "Biden," statistically speaking. The polls have shown this result for years. So, it's odd that only now are they starting to say this out loud. It tells me the establishment players are shifting away from Biden, probably to move away from him and toward Newsom. Their "reasons" will be that he is compromised by the oh-so-unfair investigations into influence peddling and that they need someone who can beat Trump b/c it's an "existential crisis for 'democracy.'"

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Ha ha! Next time I hear "Trump is a threat to our democracy " I'm going to ask " what do you mean by that and what is your definition of democracy?".......I'm sure I'll get some kind of 3rd grade answer 😉.

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Most people I've spoken with can't distinguish between a "democracy" and a "constitutional republic". They tend to think we have a pure democracy without even knowing how it's defined.

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Bingo!!! And the 3rd grade answer would be "Trump is a big poo poo head!"

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Yeah they complain all the time about how mean he is and about his name calling but call him Orange Cheeto 🙄 Hypocrites (but that’s nothing new 🙄).

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Occasionally I will fill out a mail survey, until I see the twisted logic questions to elicit a certain answer. Then it hits the burn barrel.

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I saw someone talking recently (just can't remember who it was) about a poll taken shortly before the 2016 election. This poll stated that HRC had over a 96% chance of beating Trump. So much for their polls.

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That was a model. I think it was Nate Silver's model. He's a leftist. Just as with covid and "climate change," what the models spit out are based on the assumptions that are built into them. Modeling is nothing more than fancified conjecture. Faulty assumptions - like Dems will have higher turnout or all the polls are picking up all the types of voter - will lead to terrible modeling...like the 2016 predictive models (similarly covid and climate change).

The problem in 2016 was that there was systematic bias across the polls. They all undercounted Trump voters and did not properly weight for that. To Silver's credit he did say all along that if there were some sort of systematic bias across the polls, it's very possible that Trump could win, despite his model predicting HRC as a clear winner.

For all the talk of the failures of 2016, no one is mentioning how much more accurate the polls were in 2020 and 2022.

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THEY ALL still assert that Trump-Russia cheated to win 2016 and that they tried and failed again in 2020 ONLY due to the "reforms" that they implemented (Starting in Dec 2016-to Election Day+1, 2020) and efforts they took to stop him! How do the 2 "realities" reconcile??? ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE!!! It's going to be worse in '24 in many ways i believe. MassBalloting for Democratic Party activated Masses and MassCounting and demands for Instant Accurate results shoving the old complaining out of touch white folks and whoever aside and proclaiming "Let Freedom Ring!" while enslaving the masses by a Democratizing Marxism and Authoritarianism and calling it virtuous and progressive.

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So he was selected before the 2020 election to run in 2024 no matter the outcome of 2020, you're saying? And how would you see it play out, if he's owned by the establishment - he gets to be anti-woke but his foreign policy would be the usual all-war-all-the-time? He was actually much slower to take a 'constitutional liberty' stand during COVID than many now think and are lead to believe, especially by him and his campaign, but once on board he either was a true believer or he fakes it extremely well; which of those do you think is more accurate?

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Yes, exactly. The deep state has used the "left" narrative fully. It's now starting to hurt their credibility and pocketbooks. Which hurts their ability to start wars on the down low. So, they are going to try to turn the country rightward, as they did in the W years. Same playbook. Clinton leaned on race-baiting and racial animus. Then, W, the governor of a large "red" state, showed up as a response to that with what the left called "dog whistle racism." Same plan. Same timing even (~5 yrs as governor).

The establishment - especially the deep state/CIA - only cares about war. It's how they become rich, get clout on the world stage, and keep the billionaire class funding them happy. The rest of it is merely noise used to divide the populace. They are all essentially nonpartisan and see themselves as world citizens. World leaders, actually. They don't care at all about American cultural issues. They just use those to divide. They set up the elections so they always have a candidate. HW, W, Clinton (both), Gore, Kerry, McCain, Romney, Jeb...all essentially the same, and all on board with starting unprovoked decades-long wars.

The anti-covid tyranny role is the only one DeSantis has been able to pull off so far. (I feel he was tipped off before other governors that covid wasn't actually dangerous.) He just hasn't been able to play the part of anti-establishment, populist, man-of-the-people as they'd wished he would so he could supplant Trump (who somehow incomprehensibly does manage to pull off that role). RD is just not that guy and hasn't been able to fake it. And the base wants nothing to do with the (R) establishment b/c they've figured out what I mentioned above. The latest shift by team Ron D to "slitting throats of the deep state" is laughably propagandistic. Classic opposite-speak.

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I think the reason Trump manages to pull off the 'role' of man-of-the-people, while being very wealthy personally, is that he likes working-class people and is very comfortable being with them and conversing with them. He builds buildings, as did his father, so he's been on job sites his whole life. It was from working-class people where I live, a poorer, rural area, that I learned of this affinity for Trump. It surprised me; I had been a Cruz supporter, but they didn't trust him (or basically any of the rest of that 17-person pool) as far as they could spit. I watched Gov. DeSantis in a social setting with Republican Party insiders once, and toward the end, it was clear to me that he was done, had other things he wanted to do, and really didn't want to pose with anyone else for a photo. For the last few, he could only come up with a pretty awful grimace instead of a smile. It's an annual event, no matter who the Republican Governor is, and I was told by longtime attendees that though they support RDS's policies more than they did some previous Republican Governors, there were aspects to the social event that indicated to them that he did not value them or really want to spend time with them. When I saw the 'throat' headline, I thought he was just trying to keep Vivek from getting to his right; it doesn't sound like him.

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Good point. I find there is an honesty and directness to working class people that doesn't exist in the white collar professional class. In the white collar world, no one ever really says what they think. They speak around it, use euphemisms, and try to get people to understand what they think without actually saying what they think. In the working class world, you say what you think. Hence the reaction of the white collar professional class to Trump. It's actually mostly bias against a working class style. A "that's not appropriate" reaction. Maybe that aligns with Trump's personal style better and has drawn him to working class people.

I also think on some level he saw a market and seized it. He thought his former friends in elite circles would understand, and maybe not like that he won, but at least accept it and work with him. Instead, they turned on him completely and tried to destroy him, and as he's made a point to say, his family. Had they left his family alone, I think he may have just left after a term.

But, now it's personal, and it takes him one step closer to what has happened to the working class (turned on by the Dems, then Republicans, and subject to an attempt to destroy their lives).

DeSantis seems like a nouveau elite with an introvert personality type to me. He would be better as a VP candidate. Or a behind-the-scenes guy. He looks very uncomfortable in most social settings and seems to want to get away from people. He also isn't good at speaking to the working class - he comes across as if he is trying to communicate with space aliens when he talks to them. "Good people of Oklahoma...keep doing Oklahoma things...now take me to your leader" type stuff. (I'm somewhat joking, of course.) I'm not sure he's aware that he is the one the (R) establishment chose to be their nominee. They seem to now have regrets. A lot can happen before the vote, but he doesn't look good right now.

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Good comment.

The working class people see very clearly that unlike many people in politics, Trump doesn’t have contempt for them. Many of the others pretend to be there to defend the interests of the working class but are really just using them to get power. They despise them and to anyone paying attention, it shows.

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Speaking of RDS "not looking good right now,"

"DeSantis says [Trump's] 2020 election fraud theories did not prove to be true"

Self-immolation.

https://flvoicenews.com/desantis-says-2020-election-fraud-theories-did-not-prove-to-be-true/

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You had me laughing out loud at the end of your comment! I too think RDS is an introvert. Over time, I realized I had never given Trump a chance in the 2016 primary. I never sought to find out what he said, I had somehow absorbed the mainstream attitude toward him. (The "grab 'em" audio certainly didn't help; it offended my husband even more than it did me, I think.) I voted for him, because Hillary and because Hillsdale College President Larry Arnn said he had set a former student to find what Trump had said that was anti-constitutional, and he didn't find anything. And the list for the Supreme Court. At any rate, I was so thrilled with his policies, pre-COVID, and then I felt like a fool who'd been taken in *again* by the mainstream.

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Right on Sunnydaze!

Remember, Jesse is on faux news and not willing to give up his golden handcuffs. Thus he touts the faux party line.

I don't miss my TV at all.

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Ya I like Jesse but not as long as he’s chained to the faux desk. He has no choice but to tow the line and repeat like a robot. Nope 👎🏻 We don’t watch any of the msm ever. Don’t miss it. Quality of life soared ⬆️ when we turned it off. And we turned off fox sooner than 2020 but that’s when we really stopped listening to any of them.

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Yup. Agree.

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His show was cringe worthy when he had his mom call into the show. I lost a lot of respect for Jesse.

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What’s so funny is yes they are completely lying about the numbers but they can’t lie enough to look like better numbers because Everyone knows B 60 - T 40 would be complete BS 😂

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Why are you purposefully ignoring the poll numbers showing RFK Jr. far ahead of either of those other two? It's stunning. Am I missing something? I don't think so.

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NPR did an attack piece on RFK Jr. shredding him, then Dems in Congress savaged him mercilessly head to toe taunting and demeaning him. They are AFRAID of non-unity against Anti-Progressive Pro-American Conservatism; one reason they also seek to destroy Trump a lifelong Dem turning Republican and then NOT doing their bidding. The Neo-Democratic Party of 2007-2023 OBAMA's Party is not tolerant of straying from the ranks. Quite Marxist in tactics and strategy, Saul Alinsky should be proud.

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To be fair, I ignore all polls. 😂 Honestly I didn’t know he was ahead because I don’t pay attention to them. My guess would be because the polls are notoriously democrats anyway. So maybe amongst democrats they are better? Just a guess.

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Aug 4, 2023Liked by Jeff Childers

There's a great piece from Naomi Wolf today about the Trump indictment. Here is the link to the Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/naomiwolf/p/happy-indictment-day?r=pe44y&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

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Many do not remember the hanging chads!

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I remember then, too, and that was back when I still thought Bush was a good guy all the way up to the time he used the words, "new world order". Then I knew we'd been had all along.

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Me too!

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You caught on more quickly than I. It was the missing weapons of mass destruction and the violating the free market to save it that finally got me thinking.

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Took me a bit longer (not sure I recall him saying these words at all)

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

I never understood why there were "hanging chads" to begin with. I still remember voting for the first time at eighteen and when I had finished "punching" out all my choices, I turned the ballot over and pulled off all the "hanging chads"! I was not told to do that, I just thought that was what you were supposed to do!

Mr. "the Knife" and I have been discussing the death of common sense for going on, oh, close to 20 years now. It is disheartening to realize it was probably dying way back when we were in high school. Or perhaps, if looked through the eyes of our grandparents, probably started with the boomers!

Now that I think of it, we could be watching the movie "Idiocracy" come to life on FastForward. Maybe it is as simple as the avalanche/mudslide principle: common sense starts dying in certain pockets of the population (over-educated, ivory tower types) and it metastasizes/snowballs to the general population.

We still find it astounding (and confounding) that amongst our most educated, credentialed friends, they are STILL blind to the abundant data that shows the harms caused by lack of early treatment, lockdowns, masks, jabs, etc. They have eyes that WILL NOT see, and ears that WILL NOT hear.

It seems to us to be common sense to pay attention to doctors who are actually treating patients successfully, instead of a 40 year bureaucrat who hasn't treated an actual patient in decades, if ever!

But that is just us. 🤔

Mrs. "the Knife"

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That was one of the most ridiculous poll examination things I'd ever seen. "If it's going _this_ way, they meant ..." - like reading tea leaves. I'm glad that craziness is gone, but sadly we got anonymous, unvetted mail-in ballots instead. :/

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Or we are trying to block it out. If I heard the word "chads" again (back then), I would have lost it. I am okay now. 😄

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I lived and breathed every moment

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Yes, thanks for posting, Trish. The comments are gold, just like this comment section. I really wasn’t paying much attention in 2000, but the parallels she draws to our current situation are unmistakable. She underscores everything that Jeff is saying here about the indictments. Worth your time to read.

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Thanks for this. Great post

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Aug 4, 2023·edited Aug 4, 2023

Thanks for that!

She's right. This is total banana republic time and cannot be tolerated.

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Naomi is a force to be reckoned with.

So is her husband.

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She is very bright and even-handed. I'm still reading the article and it's spot-on.

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But she voted for Biden. How could someone so intelligent do that?

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