βοΈ Coffee & Covid β Thursday, June 2, 2022 β HAGGLING π¦
Spanish elites buy their way out of jabs; a GIANT world events roundup as LOTS of stuff happened yesterday; Joe's two editorials reveal pivots and maybe a new Ukraine narrative. And more.
Happy Thursday, C&C! So like, thereβs a lot of news. A LOT. I canβt possibly report on everything. Today weβre doing geopolitics in a giant Minority Report edition.
π*COVID NEWS AND COMMENTARY* π
π EuroWeekly ran an article this week headlined, βMany Questions Remain Over The False Covid-19 Vaccination Certificates Bought By Stars, Sports Personalities And Business Leaders.β Uh oh. The article reports on a Spanish sting operation that uncovered a ring of healthcare workers selling fake vaccine passports and entering unjabbed people into the digital vaccine database, for a price.
Lots of people, apparently. Thousands. In just the one operation.
According to EuroWeekly, more than 2,200 prominent Spaniards, including the CEO of one of Spainβs largest pharmaceutical companies, which was involved in covid research, plus βleading singers, musicians, football stars, business people, politicians and top medical personnel.β
In other words, the well-heeled.
Economics says you can tell how popular a product is (demand) by how much people are willing to pay for it (price). The jabs have a massively negative price. For some reason, all these smart, successful Spaniards wanted to avoid the jab so badly they were willing to pay a lot of money and risk legal problems to buy an expensive substitute for the shots, their fake vaccine passport. This story, however entertaining it may be because of the irony, is hard economic evidence that the jabs are NOT popular. Sort of the opposite of popular.
Who wants to bet that Spain isnβt the only country where this happened?
π *COFFEE & COVIDβS MINORITY REPORT* π
π My early-warning systems are detecting an imminent shift in the Ukraine narrative. For the first time since the war started, instead of bellicose celebrations of Russian tanks stuck in the mud along slavic roadsides, corporate media is beginning to hint that that Ukraine is losing the war, badly. An article in CNN that I quote below for another story actually said this: βThe new security assistance comes as Russia has pummeled Ukraine in the east, where the country is outmanned and outgunned, Ukrainian officials have said.β
βPummeledβ Ukraine. Pummeled. Outmanned. Outgunned. I guess the Russians got those tanks started up again. Ten seconds ago, during Ukraine 1.0, RUSSIA was getting pummeled, not DOING the pummeling.
Yesterday, the Economist β another reliable lefty psyop mouthpiece β ran a story headlined, βAmerica Sends Advanced Missiles To Help Ukraine Fend Off Russia.β The article is about Joeβs war editorial, which I discuss below, but made this uncharacteristic comment: βaerial footage of the war in Donbas β¦ did not show Ukraineβs successes against Russia, but rather its vulnerabilities [and] the weapons may arrive too late to save the city of Severodonetsk.β
Media reports said Russian forces have occupied another city, Svyatogorsk in Donetsk Oblast, as of late yesterday afternoon.
Newsmax reported that techno-dancing Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky conceded Tuesday that his country is currently suffering significant daily casualties. In a televised interview, Zelensky said: βThe situation is very difficult; weβre losing 60-100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action.β
Zelenskiy, or Zelensky, or Zelenskyy, or however you spell it, told Newsmax that βthe most difficult situationβ is in the east of Ukraine: the Donbas region, the focus of the current Russian offensive.
The impression I get reading all these stories is that, absent game-changing levels of support, Ukraineβs defenses could collapse soon, possibly within weeks, or even sooner. Maybe thatβs the impression weβre supposed to get. But if so, itβs a sea-change from Narrative 1.0, which is that Putin was incompetent, Russian soldiers were unprepared and demoralized, and Ukraine had the war well in hand.
Pivoting.
π Two days ago on Tuesday, Joe Biden published an op-ed in The New York Times on Ukraine, that is if you believe that he can still write ANYTHING. The op-ed was intended to explain or justify sending bigger, more destructive, higher-tech weapons to Ukraine, in spite of their obvious likelihood to escalate the conflict and inflame the direct conflict between the US and Russia.
Curiously, Joeβs op-ed seems at times almost conciliatory, especially based on what was missing. Absent was Joeβs normal caustic braggadocio and belligerence. Absent were accusations that Russia has caused U.S. inflation. Absent were aspersions that Russia has caused food shortages. Absent were the previous threats to remove Putin β in fact, Biden expressly disclaimed that option. Absent were any threats to prosecute Putin for war crimes.
In fact, Joe said βAs much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow.β That must be a great relief to president Putin, whose 80% approval rating might accidentally fall over onto Bidenβs teeny-tiny 36% approval and squash it.
Joe, or whoever wrote the op-ed, titled it, βPresident Biden: What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine.β He says he has always been guided by one single principle since the start of the war: βNothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.β
I have NO idea what that means. Donβt even ask. I get a headache trying to puzzle it out.
Hereβs the interesting part. After saying Ukraine shouldnβt have to cede its territory, Biden wrote βthe United States will continue to work to strengthen Ukraine and support its efforts to achieve a negotiated end to the conflict.β
A NEGOTIATED end to the conflict. Not a military end.
Explaining this further, and supporting his pivoting decision to send advanced missile systems to Ukraine, Joe said βWe have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.β
So the missile systems, if Joe can be believed, are not so much intended to help Ukraine win the war as to put the country in a stronger position when it negotiates the warβs end. But β¦ if thatβs true, why print it in the New York Times? Isnβt your negotiating strategy something you want to keep quiet till its time? Or is Joe telling the Russians that he isnβt REALLY escalating the war THAT MUCH, just enough to help the war-torn country negotiate its way out? Or something else?
Joeβs op-ed seems like a carefully scripted government contrivance. The question, one I canβt answer, is who wrote it? Who is it aimed at? Did the State Department draft it for the Russians? Or did the CIA draft it for the American people?
Nobody believes that Joe wrote it, donβt be ridiculous. Especially since Joe Bidenβs op-ed directly contradicted a senior Administration official: Joe Biden. On Monday, one day before his op-ed, the New York Post ran an article headlined, βBiden Rejects Ukraine Long-Range Rocket Request as Russia Advances.β
Pivoting! It only took one 24-hour news cycle for everyone to forget all about what Joe said on Monday. Including Joe! He didnβt mention the previous dayβs remarks, at all, in his Tuesday op-ed. So.
π Yesterday β just one day after Biden promised in his NYT op-ed that βwe are not enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its bordersβ β Reuters reported that βthree sources familiar with the situationβ said the Biden administration now intends to sell Ukraine four MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones that can be armed with Hellfire missiles for battlefield use against Russia. The drones can fly for over 30 hours and can gather huge amounts of data for intelligence purposes. Gray Eagles are the Armyβs version of the more widely known Predator drone; they can carry up to eight powerful Hellfire missiles.
Needless to say, a drone that flies for 30 hours can travel a long distance into Russian territory, which would seem to contradict Joeβe op-ed promise that we wouldnβt sell Ukraine weapons enabling it to strike beyond its borders. A lie or a pivot?
π Yesterday β also one single day after Biden promised that βwe will not be directly engaged in this conflictβ β Sky News ran a story headlined, βUS Military Hackers Conducting Offensive Operations in Support of Ukraine, Says Head of Cyber Command.β
Um. But you said we werenβt directly β¦ oh, never mind.
The subheadline explained, βIn an exclusive interview with Sky News, General Paul Nakasone confirmed for the first time that the US has βconducted a series of operationsβ in response to Russiaβs invasion of Ukraine.β Cyber operations. MILITARY cyber ops.
Nakasone, a four-star general who identifies as he/him, and is also the current Director of the NSA, told Sky News: βWeβve conducted a series of operations across the full spectrum; offensive, defensive, [and] information operations.β
OFFENSIVE military operations. Offensive against WHOM? Russia, of course. I think they are trying to slice this pretty thin, maybe arguing that offensive military CYBER and intelligence operations donβt count as βdirect engagementβ with Russia, even if the cyber ops were aimed squarely at Russia.
But thereβs a bigger question. WHY would General Nakasone tell reporters about this? The cyber ops have been secret till now. What is going on? Without a doubt this was a calculated disclosure. But, calculated to do WHAT?
π Yesterday, Interfax reported that Russiaβs nuclear forces are holding large-scale drills in the Ivanovo province, northeast of Moscow. The drills include over 1,000 soldiers in βintense maneuversβ involving over 100 vehicles and most significantly β including Yars intercontinental nuclear ballistic missile launchers.
Yars vehicles can launch the MIRV-capable (Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicles) thermonuclear RS-24 Yars inter-continental ballistic missile. It has a range of 7,500 miles, can carry up to 10 nuclear warheads, and can cruise at speeds of up to 15,200 miles per hour. Thatβs pretty fast. Because they move around, the Yars are hard to track and take out.
(Itβs a stock photo, not from the drill.)
Well, what did we expect would happen? How did our generals THINK the Russians would feel about the upgraded weapons shipments to Ukraine?
π Yesterday, Newsmax ran a story headlined, βRussia: US βAdding Fuel to the Fireβ With Rocket Supply to Ukraine.β The gist is, the Russians are feeling sub-optimal about the new missile systems headed to Ukraine. THATβS how theyβre feeling.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov βsharply criticized the decisionβ and told reporters: βWe believe that the United States is purposefully and diligently adding fuel to the fire.β Weird! Thatβs exactly how it seems to me, too!
Responding to concerns over Bidenβs op-ed, βsenior U.S. officialsβ said that Ukraine had PROMISED not to use the new missile launchers to target Russia. Theyβre just for battlefield use inside Ukraine. But they COULD hit Russia, if the Ukrainians broke their promise. Or if Joe didnβt hear it right.
A reporter asked the Kremlin spokesman the obvious question: how will Russia respond if Ukraine DOES use the new U.S.-supplied rockets to strike inside Russian territory?
Spokesman Peskov answered: βLetβs not talk about worst-case scenarios.β
Thatβs kind of chilly, no? Heβs saying that if Ukraine uses those missile launchers against a Russian city or something, that will trigger a βworst case scenario.β
Newsmax also said that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was asked about the prospect of a DIRECT confrontation between the United States and Russia. He said, βAny arms shipments that continue, that are on the rise, increase the risks of such a development.β Just what I was thinking, and Iβm not a military expert or anything.
Iβm SO glad Joe is in charge of this war train, arenβt you?
π Yesterday I wrote about the IAEAβs alarming new report that Iranβs mad mullahs are rapidly building a bomb, an awkward scenario which Israel has previously sworn it would never let happen. Then, the Jerusalem Post ran a story yesterday afternoon headlined, βIsrael Simulates Massive Strike Against Iran With Hundreds of IDF Aircraft.β
Itβs just a drill, nothing to see here. Theyβre not PRACTICING or anything.
As part of the Israeli Defense Forceβs month-long βChariots of Fireβ drill, hundreds of IAF fighter jets and refueling planes took off overnight Wednesday from various bases to simulate striking targets far from Israelβs borders, including in Iran.
The drill βconstitutes an important component in maintaining the readiness of the IDF for a variety of operational scenarios,β the military said. See? Itβs just for readiness, thatβs all.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz explained, βthe IDF is constantly preparing for operations and various campaigns in various theaters, and it will inflict a severe blow on anyone who seeks to threaten the citizens of the State of Israel.β Anyone? Like, say, Iran?
Maybe. The Jerusalem Post explained that, with tensions increasing over Iranβs nuclear program and regional hostility, both Israel and Iran have been threatening each other, with senior officers saying their militaries are capable of striking the other. Tick, tock.
Is Joe keeping up with all this? I worry the pace of world events might be slipping away from him a little.
π Well, you have to admit that Joe Biden has been a busy little writing beaver. The day before Tuesdayβs awesome New York Timesβ op-ed about Ukraine, heβd ALSO written ANOTHER op-ed on Monday, this one published in the Wall Street Journal, this time about his genius plan to stop inflation.
Well. Itβs not so much a plan as an extended excuse. Biden spent most of his editorial word budget deflecting blame, explaining away Americaβs economic woes, and insanely claiming that things are looking up.
But mainly he lied through his nasty, yellowed, chipped and crooked little teeth. For instance, Biden claimed that most Americans are BETTER OFF since he infested the White House, because weβve βincreased β¦ savings and have less debt.β But the Department of Commerce says the personal savings rate has plunged to 4.4% β the lowest level since the Great Recession β a 15% drop since Biden occupied the Oval Office.
Who to believe?
A story yesterday in the Washington Examiner about Joeβs inflation op-ed was headlined, βBiden Cannot Admit The Truth About His Inflation Problem.β The Examiner put it this way: βIn short, Bidenβs plan to ease the inflation β¦ is that he has no plan.β It called the suggestions Biden did offer βcomically sophomoricβ and βembarrassing.β
Two op-eds in two days from one president on two subjects, one domestic, one foreign. Whew. Biden is surely burning up the keyboard this week.
All these op-eds make me feel like the White House is in full-on panic mode.
π To further illustrate the point, CNBC ran a story yesterday headlined βJamie Dimon Says βBrace Yourselfβ for an Economic Hurricane Caused by the Fed and Ukraine War.β Jamie Dimon is JPMorgan Chaseβs CEO. He told analysts and investors during an hour-long session at a financial conference yesterday in New York that he is getting the U.S.βs biggest bank ready for an βeconomic hurricaneβ and advised investors to do the same. According to CNBC, Dimon went on a tear at the meeting, barreling through topics like a βgreatest hitsβ of his observations and gripes, often spiced with profanity.
βYou know, I said thereβs storm clouds but Iβm going to change it β¦ itβs a hurricane,β Dimon said. βYouβd better brace yourself,β Dimon warned the roomful of analysts and investors. βJPMorgan is bracing ourselves and weβre going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.β
Dimon seems to be sensing the same thing we are: that the U.S. is racing headlong toward a raft of unforeseen outcomes in Ukraine. βWars go bad, [they] go south in unintended consequences,β Dimon said. β[Thereβs been] a huge change in the flow of funds around the world. I donβt know what the effect of that is, but Iβm prepared for, at a minimum, huge volatility.β
A hurricane of volatility is exactly what you DONβT want, if youβre an investor. Thanks, experts.
π Unsurprisingly, Turkey is taking advantage. Yesterday, Newsweek ran an article headlined, βTurkey Is Playing off NATO Against Russia with Eyes on Northern Syria.β Newsweek (and other online sources late in the day yesterday) reported that Turkey β holding all the cards in its negotiations over Sweden and Finlandβs NATO memberships β ordered live military strikes against its political enemies in Syria. The groups, which Turkey calls βterrorists,β are generally seen as supported by Washington.
βThe calculus perhaps on the side of Ankara is that the West needs Turkey on board with NATO enlargement,β former Turkish diplomat Sinan Γlgen told Newsweek, βand, therefore, at a critical time like this, there will be less criticism of Turkeyβs cross-border operation.β
In other words, Turkey can do whatever it wants so long as the U.S. is trying to get it to agree to the two new memberships.
To underscore the point, yesterday Turkey officially changed its name to the βRepublic of Turkiye,β through a late-filed registration in the United Nations.
International protocol now requires all UN member countries to refer to Turkey as Turkiye. Get ready to start seeing that odd spelling everywhere in the news.


Then, yesterday Pakistanβs new U.S.-approved prime minister announced he is headed for a nice visit to Turkey, I mean Turkiye, for a relationship hookup. Just to say βhiβ and stuff.

And then the Financial Times ran a story yesterday headlined, βFinland Woos Ankara with Hint it Could Buy Turkish Drones.β The first line of the story says, βFinland has begun a charm offensive to win over Turkey to its Nato application.β
All this haggling is starting to look more and more like a deal at a carpet stall in Istanbul. Or something even more unseemly. I predict Turkiye is going to have a good month.
Have a terrific Thursday! Iβll see you back here tomorrow for more. Things are moving fast!
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I told people to not buy the fake cards. First off stand up with the rest of us and say no, the more of us the better. And secondly, they think weβre being vilified for not getting the injections? Wait until the injected find out not only were they duped into getting them, but that many, many famous people lied and didnβt get them.
"Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine", eh? Appears that Kamala Harris is writing Brandon's speeches now.