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Yes, my own process for arriving at a conclusion is of course probabilistic.. as it must be since nothing is ever known for certain. But describing it as a coin flip is highly disingenuous. You take in all the information, weigh it against conflicting information, and make an educated guess. If you have a lot of anecdotal evidence pointing the same way, that can't just be ignored. When you start to see rampant scientific fraud, that also factors in to reduce confidence in supposed RCTs.. etc. When possible, perform experiments. It's called science..

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