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rjt's avatar

"It's hard to time the market."

"The tide, if taken in full flood..."

Waiting for BRICS+ to take effect will likely catch the ebb and destroy any chance of his programme succeeding. Successful politicians judge these risks, and Mr. Milei is certainly more politically and economically aware and experienced than I am, probably than you as well, and consider the downside:

You are faced with the potential of four more years ofJoe Biden, we may deserve another session of Justin Trudeau. Presiden Milei must do what he finds possible, not ideal.

If you read Bonner Private Research on Substack you will have some local reports from Argentina.

We understand that the Federal Reserve Note is a fiat currency not quite equivalent to Parker Bros. Monopoly money, but despite its decline it has some stability. The Argentinean currency has been so abused for decades that its confidence is negligible and stability risible. The US dollar at least gives an illusion of value and an opportunity for honest reform. It might be sporting to trade a couple of thousand dollars for March 2025 USD futures vs Arg Pesos in case Joe Biden is reelected, a potential good win!

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Vonu's avatar

How quickly BRICS+ takes effect is entirely up to each new member of it.

Before Milei had been elected, Argentina was poised to join BRICS+ and many financial analysts expected it to initiate a speedy turnaround in its economy, as it has for all previous members.

How does the increase in the national debt of the United States by a trillion dollars every 100 days or so make the dollar stable?

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rjt's avatar

Yes.

Politics is the art of the possible. The Argentines have been accustomed to using the USD, which in memory has been far more stable than Argentine currency.

BRICS is likely possible in a year or two, positing the survival of the Milei government.

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Vonu's avatar

Are you aware that the current members of BRICS+ control half of the petroleum resources on the planet and are refusing to use the petrodollar to buy or sell them in the future?

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