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Donna in MO's avatar

While I don't trust any of the CDC data, the baseline has to be computed somehow, like on their 'excess deaths' chart. I did some 'death research' for a client who provides training and support for companies to help support employees going through life events, including death of a loved one. Even before covid there were articles and studies talking about the coming 'death boom' in fields like funeral planning and wealth management simply from our aging population. Throw in increasingly unhealthy lifestyles and over reliance on pharma fixes and life expectancy was already projected to decline. Actuaries from social security showed a big jump in the last decade (2010-2019) of people living into their 80's and 90's. So, an increase in the number of deaths was coming. The question is, how much was that helped along by the medical/gov establishment? I am not smart enough to be an actuary but they could likely calculate it. The CDC may play with their numbers but guessing social security and medicare actuaries actually probably want the real numbers. Of course the gov lags in releases, the latest tables available right now are 2020.

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RunningLogic's avatar

An increase in the number of deaths in those age brackets would be understandable, not so much the healthy 30-60 year olds that seem to have been disproportionately affected lately.

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Donna in MO's avatar

Right, without getting too much in the weeds, I went back to those tables from my project, and there was a marked increase in people per 100K who were still alive in their 80's and 90's compared to a decade ago. But the number who survived to age X has declined from age 25 to age 65. For instance, in 2019, 360 fewer people per 100K were still alive at age 44-45 compared to 2009. (that year was the biggest decline) So 20-60 year olds were already dying at a higher rate from 2009-2019. And holy crap, my curiosity got the better of my so I found and downloaded the 2020 data (the most recent available) - AND THE NUMBER HAS DECLINED for every age over 25 using 2009 as the benchmark year. For instance, in 2009, 95,936 of 100K people were still alive age 44-45. In 2020, only 94,765 out of 100K made it to age 44-45. 1171 fewer people. Huge drop in the number at the older ages. Lower life expectancy at every age.

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RunningLogic's avatar

Wow that’s crazy. Very interesting. I would really like to know for the last two years though 😕

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Donna in MO's avatar

Well 2020's numbers came out in Sept 2022, so perhaps 2021 will be out around Sept 2023 then?

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