Well, different polling houses use different likely voter models. Some use self-report as in someone saying "yes, I plan to vote." Others use voting history (which in a survey is also self-reported). Others use age, gender, race, and strength of opinions to try to predict likely voters. So, for example...younger people are less likely. W…
Well, different polling houses use different likely voter models. Some use self-report as in someone saying "yes, I plan to vote." Others use voting history (which in a survey is also self-reported). Others use age, gender, race, and strength of opinions to try to predict likely voters. So, for example...younger people are less likely. Whites and Asians are more likely. If they have strong opinions to their answers (rating feelings at the high or low end of scales), they would be more likely b/c supposedly more passionate.
It's really a guessing game, and when polls go horribly wrong (when polls attack, lol) it's usually b/c the likely voter models were wrong.
It's also something that left-leaning pollsters frequently get wrong, rating Dem voters as more likely to vote b/c from their biased viewpoint there is always something to be fired up about. Dems and leftists especially do not have good historical awareness. So, when the Supreme Court makes a ruling, they automatically assume that means every Dem is going to be hopping mad and ready to run to the polls. In fact, Republican voters tend to be older, whiter, more steadily employed (aka paying more taxes), and therefore more likely to vote, regardless of what outrage du jour the left whips itself into a frenzy over.
Yes. In my 'frequent voter' list for school board, (frequent voters in low turnout municipal elections) I sorted by date of birth. ~60% were over age 55, and only 6% were under age 35. On a national scale, this is why we will never get a good 'fix' for social security. Seniors vote, and woe to any politician who talks about reform.
So the polling companies don't have access to state voter databases showing how often particular voters have voted? I know political parties do have such access.
Probably depends on how hard they want to work at it. If they are polling just to get the answer they want, rigorous methodology is just an unnecessary expense.
Well, different polling houses use different likely voter models. Some use self-report as in someone saying "yes, I plan to vote." Others use voting history (which in a survey is also self-reported). Others use age, gender, race, and strength of opinions to try to predict likely voters. So, for example...younger people are less likely. Whites and Asians are more likely. If they have strong opinions to their answers (rating feelings at the high or low end of scales), they would be more likely b/c supposedly more passionate.
It's really a guessing game, and when polls go horribly wrong (when polls attack, lol) it's usually b/c the likely voter models were wrong.
It's also something that left-leaning pollsters frequently get wrong, rating Dem voters as more likely to vote b/c from their biased viewpoint there is always something to be fired up about. Dems and leftists especially do not have good historical awareness. So, when the Supreme Court makes a ruling, they automatically assume that means every Dem is going to be hopping mad and ready to run to the polls. In fact, Republican voters tend to be older, whiter, more steadily employed (aka paying more taxes), and therefore more likely to vote, regardless of what outrage du jour the left whips itself into a frenzy over.
Yes. In my 'frequent voter' list for school board, (frequent voters in low turnout municipal elections) I sorted by date of birth. ~60% were over age 55, and only 6% were under age 35. On a national scale, this is why we will never get a good 'fix' for social security. Seniors vote, and woe to any politician who talks about reform.
So the polling companies don't have access to state voter databases showing how often particular voters have voted? I know political parties do have such access.
Probably depends on how hard they want to work at it. If they are polling just to get the answer they want, rigorous methodology is just an unnecessary expense.
Kind of like with the Covid clinical trials 😑