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That was a model. I think it was Nate Silver's model. He's a leftist. Just as with covid and "climate change," what the models spit out are based on the assumptions that are built into them. Modeling is nothing more than fancified conjecture. Faulty assumptions - like Dems will have higher turnout or all the polls are picking up all the types of voter - will lead to terrible modeling...like the 2016 predictive models (similarly covid and climate change).

The problem in 2016 was that there was systematic bias across the polls. They all undercounted Trump voters and did not properly weight for that. To Silver's credit he did say all along that if there were some sort of systematic bias across the polls, it's very possible that Trump could win, despite his model predicting HRC as a clear winner.

For all the talk of the failures of 2016, no one is mentioning how much more accurate the polls were in 2020 and 2022.

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