Yes, just posted about this on another thread as I do some occasional survey work for small businesses, although informal, such as surveying their current customer list, so I am always interested in methodology, how they word it, and who is paying for it. I record them and send them to whoever I think would be interested.
Yes, just posted about this on another thread as I do some occasional survey work for small businesses, although informal, such as surveying their current customer list, so I am always interested in methodology, how they word it, and who is paying for it. I record them and send them to whoever I think would be interested.
"likely voter' is suspect to me, as people may lie about how often they vote.
I've compiled door knocking lists for conservative school board candidates the past 3 years based on frequent voters, which I define as those who have voted in either 1, 2 or 3 of the last municipal elections (which have about a 12-14% turnout). Get the list from the county election board. Amazing when you cross reference that with the people who are the most vocal on social media, look them up to see if they have voted in past elections, and oftentimes, they have not. Actually 2 of the conservative candidates who have won in the last 2 SB elections had not voted in past SB elections - but they do now! Heaviest turnout in local elections is in blue precincts, R's need to step it up!
Well, different polling houses use different likely voter models. Some use self-report as in someone saying "yes, I plan to vote." Others use voting history (which in a survey is also self-reported). Others use age, gender, race, and strength of opinions to try to predict likely voters. So, for example...younger people are less likely. Whites and Asians are more likely. If they have strong opinions to their answers (rating feelings at the high or low end of scales), they would be more likely b/c supposedly more passionate.
It's really a guessing game, and when polls go horribly wrong (when polls attack, lol) it's usually b/c the likely voter models were wrong.
It's also something that left-leaning pollsters frequently get wrong, rating Dem voters as more likely to vote b/c from their biased viewpoint there is always something to be fired up about. Dems and leftists especially do not have good historical awareness. So, when the Supreme Court makes a ruling, they automatically assume that means every Dem is going to be hopping mad and ready to run to the polls. In fact, Republican voters tend to be older, whiter, more steadily employed (aka paying more taxes), and therefore more likely to vote, regardless of what outrage du jour the left whips itself into a frenzy over.
Yes. In my 'frequent voter' list for school board, (frequent voters in low turnout municipal elections) I sorted by date of birth. ~60% were over age 55, and only 6% were under age 35. On a national scale, this is why we will never get a good 'fix' for social security. Seniors vote, and woe to any politician who talks about reform.
So the polling companies don't have access to state voter databases showing how often particular voters have voted? I know political parties do have such access.
Probably depends on how hard they want to work at it. If they are polling just to get the answer they want, rigorous methodology is just an unnecessary expense.
Yes, just posted about this on another thread as I do some occasional survey work for small businesses, although informal, such as surveying their current customer list, so I am always interested in methodology, how they word it, and who is paying for it. I record them and send them to whoever I think would be interested.
"likely voter' is suspect to me, as people may lie about how often they vote.
I've compiled door knocking lists for conservative school board candidates the past 3 years based on frequent voters, which I define as those who have voted in either 1, 2 or 3 of the last municipal elections (which have about a 12-14% turnout). Get the list from the county election board. Amazing when you cross reference that with the people who are the most vocal on social media, look them up to see if they have voted in past elections, and oftentimes, they have not. Actually 2 of the conservative candidates who have won in the last 2 SB elections had not voted in past SB elections - but they do now! Heaviest turnout in local elections is in blue precincts, R's need to step it up!
Well, different polling houses use different likely voter models. Some use self-report as in someone saying "yes, I plan to vote." Others use voting history (which in a survey is also self-reported). Others use age, gender, race, and strength of opinions to try to predict likely voters. So, for example...younger people are less likely. Whites and Asians are more likely. If they have strong opinions to their answers (rating feelings at the high or low end of scales), they would be more likely b/c supposedly more passionate.
It's really a guessing game, and when polls go horribly wrong (when polls attack, lol) it's usually b/c the likely voter models were wrong.
It's also something that left-leaning pollsters frequently get wrong, rating Dem voters as more likely to vote b/c from their biased viewpoint there is always something to be fired up about. Dems and leftists especially do not have good historical awareness. So, when the Supreme Court makes a ruling, they automatically assume that means every Dem is going to be hopping mad and ready to run to the polls. In fact, Republican voters tend to be older, whiter, more steadily employed (aka paying more taxes), and therefore more likely to vote, regardless of what outrage du jour the left whips itself into a frenzy over.
Yes. In my 'frequent voter' list for school board, (frequent voters in low turnout municipal elections) I sorted by date of birth. ~60% were over age 55, and only 6% were under age 35. On a national scale, this is why we will never get a good 'fix' for social security. Seniors vote, and woe to any politician who talks about reform.
So the polling companies don't have access to state voter databases showing how often particular voters have voted? I know political parties do have such access.
Probably depends on how hard they want to work at it. If they are polling just to get the answer they want, rigorous methodology is just an unnecessary expense.
Kind of like with the Covid clinical trials 😑