I saw someone talking recently (just can't remember who it was) about a poll taken shortly before the 2016 election. This poll stated that HRC had over a 96% chance of beating Trump. So much for their polls.
I saw someone talking recently (just can't remember who it was) about a poll taken shortly before the 2016 election. This poll stated that HRC had over a 96% chance of beating Trump. So much for their polls.
That was a model. I think it was Nate Silver's model. He's a leftist. Just as with covid and "climate change," what the models spit out are based on the assumptions that are built into them. Modeling is nothing more than fancified conjecture. Faulty assumptions - like Dems will have higher turnout or all the polls are picking up all the types of voter - will lead to terrible modeling...like the 2016 predictive models (similarly covid and climate change).
The problem in 2016 was that there was systematic bias across the polls. They all undercounted Trump voters and did not properly weight for that. To Silver's credit he did say all along that if there were some sort of systematic bias across the polls, it's very possible that Trump could win, despite his model predicting HRC as a clear winner.
For all the talk of the failures of 2016, no one is mentioning how much more accurate the polls were in 2020 and 2022.
THEY ALL still assert that Trump-Russia cheated to win 2016 and that they tried and failed again in 2020 ONLY due to the "reforms" that they implemented (Starting in Dec 2016-to Election Day+1, 2020) and efforts they took to stop him! How do the 2 "realities" reconcile??? ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE!!! It's going to be worse in '24 in many ways i believe. MassBalloting for Democratic Party activated Masses and MassCounting and demands for Instant Accurate results shoving the old complaining out of touch white folks and whoever aside and proclaiming "Let Freedom Ring!" while enslaving the masses by a Democratizing Marxism and Authoritarianism and calling it virtuous and progressive.
I saw someone talking recently (just can't remember who it was) about a poll taken shortly before the 2016 election. This poll stated that HRC had over a 96% chance of beating Trump. So much for their polls.
That was a model. I think it was Nate Silver's model. He's a leftist. Just as with covid and "climate change," what the models spit out are based on the assumptions that are built into them. Modeling is nothing more than fancified conjecture. Faulty assumptions - like Dems will have higher turnout or all the polls are picking up all the types of voter - will lead to terrible modeling...like the 2016 predictive models (similarly covid and climate change).
The problem in 2016 was that there was systematic bias across the polls. They all undercounted Trump voters and did not properly weight for that. To Silver's credit he did say all along that if there were some sort of systematic bias across the polls, it's very possible that Trump could win, despite his model predicting HRC as a clear winner.
For all the talk of the failures of 2016, no one is mentioning how much more accurate the polls were in 2020 and 2022.
THEY ALL still assert that Trump-Russia cheated to win 2016 and that they tried and failed again in 2020 ONLY due to the "reforms" that they implemented (Starting in Dec 2016-to Election Day+1, 2020) and efforts they took to stop him! How do the 2 "realities" reconcile??? ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE!!! It's going to be worse in '24 in many ways i believe. MassBalloting for Democratic Party activated Masses and MassCounting and demands for Instant Accurate results shoving the old complaining out of touch white folks and whoever aside and proclaiming "Let Freedom Ring!" while enslaving the masses by a Democratizing Marxism and Authoritarianism and calling it virtuous and progressive.